FundamentalOverview

Gold has been rallyingsteadily this week since bouncing from the bottom of the recent range. The softUSJob Openings on Wednesday gave it the tailwind to push into the keyresistance around the 2530 level.

This move has been drivenby falling real yields as the softer US data caused the market to position moredovishly into the NFP release. This puts the recent rally in gold at risk incase the NFP report comes out better than expected as real yields will reversethe recent drop.

In the bigger picture, goldshould remain supported as real yields fall due to the Fed’s rate cut cycle,but in the short-term, strong US data might weigh on the market a bit.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold eventually bounced on the support zone around the 2480 level. We are now tradingnear the top of the range where we can expect the sellers to step in with adefined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the support.The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above theresistance to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the range between the 2480 support and the 2530 resistance. Themarket participants kept on “playing the range” by buying at support andselling at resistance and today’s NFP release will likely trigger a breakout oneither side.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that once the price broke above the downward trendline more buyers piled in to positionfor a rally into the resistance. Today’s NFP report is the most important ofthe year, so the market impact will likely be huge.

The red lines define the average daily range for today, but I extended the rangemanually as the indicator is based on the previous 5 days where we just stayedin the range. Therefore, don’t rely too much on the average daily range today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the consensus sees160K jobs added and a 4.2% unemployment rate.

See the video below