欧洲央行将很快宣布利率决定，预计将降息25个基点。与此同时，美国股市开盘，道指下跌约-600点，但标准普尔指数小幅上涨，纳斯达克指数也小幅上涨。美国收益率高出两个基点。美元小幅走高。

欧元兑美元：关注欧洲央行降息和关键技术支持

由于普遍预计欧洲央行将降息25个基点，欧元兑美元汇率报1.1359，仍比今年高点1.1473低100多个百分点，但远高于2024年低点1.0200附近，使该货币对更接近年度区间的高端。

为了通过欧洲央行的决定形成更悲观的技术偏向，需要发生两个关键事件：

1. 跌破100小时移动平均线1.13495 – Price is currently hovering just above this level.

2. 持续跌破1.1271-1.1275支撑区域 – This zone includes the 61.8% retracement of the range from the 2020 high (at 1.1271) and the July 2023 high (at 1.1275).

确认跌破这两个水平可能会加速下跌势头。随着欧洲央行利率决策的临近，请关注这些技术水平。

美元兑日元：摆脱关键支撑，但需要清除100小时MA才能转移偏见

美元兑日元跌至8月和9月的关键波动区域，介于141.64至141.94之间。低点延伸至141.66，随后小幅反弹。

On the topside, the falling 100-小时均线, currently at 142.90, is a key resistance level. Although the pair briefly broke above it during the European session, the move lacked follow-through. A sustained move above the 100-hour MA is 需要更加乐观地倾斜偏见.

如果发生这种情况，下一个上行目标是：

• 200-小时移动平均线为144.49

• 近期跌幅145.32点的38.2%回撤

进一步上涨的跑道很明显，但多头需要收复并守住142.90以上才能打开大门。

GBPUSD：持有支撑并反弹至关键阻力区

The GBPUSD fell during the Asian-Pacific and early European sessions, testing the 4月初高点升至1.32067. While the pair briefly dipped below that level, reaching a session low near 1.32057, downside momentum stalled, and the price has since rebounded.

The recovery has taken GBPUSD back into a 1.3222和1.3245之间的关键挥杆区域. A move above the 1.3245 level would open the door toward yesterday’s high at 1.3292. A break above that, and then through 1.3312, would put the 2024年高点1.3432 in focus.

目前，价格走势在1.3200上方仍具有建设性，但买家需要清除阻力才能重新获得控制权。