美元兑三种主要货币--欧元、日元和英镑--汇率较低。本视频介绍了交易员在确定这三种货币对的偏差、风险和目标时应遵循的技术参数。

欧元兑美元：
The EURUSD moved lower yesterday but held support at its rising 100-hour moving average, which starts today’s US session at a higher hurdle of 1.1311. Holding above this key MA level keeps the bias in favor of the buyers. A move below would tilt the bias in the short-term more to the downside, with the next key target being the support area between 1.1271 and 1.1275. Just below that, the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from last week’s low comes in at 1.12495—a critical level to watch if the downside momentum builds.

美元日元：
The USDJPY tested the low from last Friday at 142.07 today, and found buyers at that level, rebounding to the upside. The pair now trades between that double bottom at 142.07 and the 100-hour moving average above at 143.361. A break below 142.07 would open the door toward the next key support at the swing level near 141.67. A move above would tilt the bias marginally to the upside with work to do.

GBPUSD：
The GBPUSD broke above a swing area between 1.3221 and 1.3245, climbing to a new high at 1.3290. A break above that level would have traders eyeing the next upside target at 1.33124, followed by the 2024 high at 1.34323. On the downside, sellers would need to push the pair back below 1.3245 and 1.3221, with additional support at 1.32067—the high from two weeks ago, which served as a base before the latest move higher.

Today’s technical levels will be influenced by the upcoming 美国3月份零售销售报告（请参阅Adam的帖子）, where the headline figure is expected to rise by 百分之一点三, and 汽车销售除外 are forecast to increase by 0.3%. The 零售控制小组, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, is projected to rise by 0.6%.

Also on the economic calendar is 工业生产 and 产能利用, both due at 美国东部时间上午9：15. Expectations are for industrial production to dip by -0.2%, while capacity utilization is seen edging down to 78.0% from 78.2%. 制造业产出 is expected to rise by 0.3%, a slowdown from last month’s 0.9% gain.

At 东部时间上午9时45, the 加拿大银行（BoC） will announce its rate decision (see Adam's preview here). The outcome is uncertain, with markets split on whether the central bank will cut rates or hold steady. Before the recent wave of tariffs, the BoC appeared poised to slow its easing cycle. However, the expected drag on growth from those tariffs has reintroduced doubt into the market.

Despite the uncertainty, the 加元走强, with USDCAD falling to a low of 周一1.38278—its weakest level since November 2024. The pair has since rebounded and now trades near the 100小时移动平均线下跌至1.39149. That level will act as the near-term barometer: staying below keeps sellers in control. A move above could shift bias higher, with the 200-日均线位于心理1.4000水平附近 serving as a key resistance target. A break above that would be more bullish for the pair.

At 美国东部时间上午10：00, 美国企业库存 for February are expected to rise by 百分之零点二, while the NAHB房产市场指数 for April is forecast to dip to 37, down from 39 in March.

At 上午10时30, the 美国每周石油库存报告 is due. Expectations are for a 原油建成50.7万桶, while 汽油库存 are projected to fall by -159.5万桶 and 馏分油库存 by -118.0万桶.

私人数据显示，原油产量高于预期，汽油和蒸馏油产量高于预期：

The key event later in the session will be 美联储主席鲍威尔下午1：30发表讲话, where he will address the 经济前景. While the Fed has often characterized tariff effects as transitory, Powell may need to acknowledge the risk that these price shocks could become more persistent—especially if inflation expectations begin to shift higher. Recent soft (i.e. survey) data from consumer and business surveys suggest that such expectations are already rising. The challenge for the Fed will be determining whether these tariffs are temporary 逆风 or eventually become 顺风 for inflation and growth under the Trump administration’s policy path.

Taking a snapshot of the markets:
美股走低, with sentiment pressured by concerns in the semiconductor sector. 英伟达股价在盘前交易中下跌逾5% after the company announced it would take a 55亿美元的费用 due to new U.S. export restrictions requiring a license for shipping its H20 AI处理器 to China and other countries.

• 道琼斯工业平均指数-41点
• 标准普尔指数-43点
• 纳斯达克指数-273点

在美国债务市场，收益率好坏参半：

• 2年期收益率3.809%，-1.9个基点
• 5年期收益率3.952%，-1.1个基点
• 10年期收益率4.321%，不变
• 30年期收益率4.779%，+0.3个基点