The USDCAD跌破200日移动平均线1.39969 during yesterday’s session — the first drop below that level since October 7. That break marked a major shift in bias and set the stage for continued downside momentum, which has extended into today’s trading.

The pair has also moved below the 2024年9月低点反弹61.8%, which comes in at 1.39465, and is trading beneath a key 挥杆面积在1.3922和1.3930之间. These breaks confirm a technical shift in favor of sellers.

The next major target comes in at 1.3813（参见红色编号圆圈）. Below that, a broader swing zone dating back further on the chart lies between 1.3747和1.37748 (not shown in the image above).

什么会让买家重新信心？

至少，价格需要：

• Reclaim the 1.3930秋千区

• Break back above the 61.8%回撤至1.39465

• Ultimately, push through the 200-日移动平均线为1.39969

With the pair currently trading around 1.3874, buyers would need a move of at least 上涨120点 to begin shifting the technical picture (with a move back above the 200 day MA). Absent that, and despite a potential corrective rally, if the price cannot get above the MA level, the buyers are not winning/the sellers are still in play.

In short, this week’s break has 打破了数月的盘整范围, and with key levels broken along the way, the sellers remain firmly in control.