The USDCAD has been consolidating over the last 4-5 trading days. After reaching the high on Tuesday and Wednesday last week, the price has seen lower highs including today's high (so far at least).

However, the lows since midday Tuesday has bottomed near 1.3564. That is now just above the rising 200 hour MA at 1.35596. That is a strong floor.

If the price can stay above floor, the buyers are still in play (at least in the short term).

Having said, that there is the work to do on the topside.

• The price needs to get above the high from Friday at virtually 1.3600, and then the high from Thursday at 1.36038.
• Get above those levels and a swing area between 1.3615-1.3622 would need to be broken.
• Finally, a move above the falling 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% of the move down from Aggust high at 1.3633.

So buyers are in play on the floor. However, the buyers need to show they mean business by taking out the above levels.

Fundamentally, the Fed is in play with 57% chance now of 50 bp cut on Wednesday. That would be bearish on the surface for the USDCAD. They caveat is the BOC has already done 50 bps with more to come as risk of unemployment moving up is real. The last employment report showed a 6.6% unemployment rate. That was the highest since 2017 if you throw out the Covid period between 2020 and 2021.