The 美国10年期收益率 fell sharply earlier in the day, reaching a low of 3.884%, just above Friday’s trough at 3.860%. As equity market losses pared back, yields began rebounding.

The recovery pushed the yield back above the 61.8%回撤 of the move up from the September 2024 low at 4.061%, and then through a 摇摆区在4.108%至4.152%之间. The rally extended to a high of 4.212%, breaching the 50%回撤位至4.204%, but stopping just shy of the 200-日移动平均线为4.222%.

That 4.204%-4.222%区域 now marks 强大阻力. A rejection here and a move back 低于4.108% could invite fresh downside momentum. Conversely, a sustained break 200天MA以上 would weaken the bearish technical case and suggest further upside risk for yields once again.

自新任期开始以来，特朗普总统和财政部长贝森特一直更加关心利率与股价的关系。

今天早上他发帖称利率正在暴跌。自他的第二任期开始以来，10年期收益率已从4.75%升至目前的4.22%，但与2024年3.60%的低点相比，收益率正处于2022年9月低点以来区间的中点附近。这么低.是的..但幅度不是很多。此外，由于增长放缓，收益率也较低。

油价也较低，但由于经济增长放缓的预期而有所下降。令人惊讶的是，OPEC+还宣布减产将结束。在预计需求下降时增加供应是一个有趣的举动。