澳元兑美元再次在100日移动平均线附近的熟悉阻力位上苦苦挣扎。 Earlier today, the pair moved higher but stalled just shy of the 100-day MA — a level that also capped rallies in February and saw two failed breakouts in March. Sellers leaned against it again, reinforcing the barrier and shifting momentum back to the downside.

From a technical perspective, the latest move lower has taken the price down to 一个关键的支持汇合点:

• 61.8%回撤 of the move up from the February low

• 4小时图上的100柱移动平均线

• A 先前的挥杆区域（参见红色编号圆圈）

该区域目前正在接受测试，代表了短期偏见的潜在支点。

接下来是什么？

• 跌破当前支撑区域（0.6224左右） would increase bearish pressure and target the next support near 0.61779降至0.61608（50%和摇摆区）

• 持有并弹跳 from this area could see another push higher — but bulls would need to clear the 100-日MA接近0.63935 to flip the bias more convincingly

由于整体趋势仍然偏向下行，并且100日均线一再失败，卖家维持短期控制-但这个支撑区是关键。