The 美元/加元 continued its upward momentum yesterday, breaking above a key swing level at 1.4366 before pushing through the 38.2%回撤位 of the February high-to-low decline at 1.4395. This move signaled renewed buying interest, propelling the pair to a new corrective high of 1.4452 before sellers emerged.

That high pushed the price into a 关键阻力区介于1.4448和1.4471之间, an area that has been technically significant in recent months. This zone marks the 盘整范围的上界 that defined trading from mid-December to late January. Volatility increased after the 特朗普加拿大关税, briefly driving the price above this range before falling below the lower boundary at 1.4268 in February.

With USD/CAD now back inside this 先前整合区, momentum favors a potential retest of the upper boundary at 1.4471. This level also coincides with the 2月份交易区间中点50%, making it a crucial pivot point for determining the next directional move.

需要关注的关键级别

• 支持： The 38.2%回撤至1.4395 (broken yesterday) now acts as a key short-term support. A move below this level would shift focus to the next support at 1.4366, a previously broken resistance level.
• 阻力： The 1.4471 level remains the major upside barrier. A confirmed break above this area would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for further gains.

市场偏见与前景

• 看涨情景： If buyers 持有1.4395上方, the short-term bias remains bullish, with a push toward 1.4471 likely. A breakout beyond this level would confirm stronger upside momentum.
• 熊市情景： Failure to hold 1.4395 could lead to a deeper pullback, with 1.4366 as the next downside target. A move below this level would bring the broader consolidation range (Red Box) back into play, shifting the bias lower.

For now, 买家仍处于控制之中, but the 红盒整合区 still looms as a potential limiter. Keep an eye on 短期偏见线索1.4395—holding above it supports further upside, while a break below could see renewed downside pressure.