May 23, according to media reports, the UK's inflation rate is expected to fall sharply in April this year, which will be reflected in the UK's April CPI data released on Wednesday.。

Excluding energy prices, the UK inflation rate in April may fall sharply, and the benchmark interest rate will rise for 12 consecutive years.？

According to economist estimates, the UK will emerge from seven consecutive months of double-digit inflation: the annual rate of CPI in April will rise from 10.1% down to 8.2%, while its monthly CPI rate is expected to remain at 0.8% unchanged。In addition, as last year's soaring energy prices will be removed from the annual calculation, driven by the base effect, the UK's inflation rate in April this year may fall at the fastest rate in more than 30 years.。

If the UK inflation data does record a sharp fall, it will undoubtedly bring relief to the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey (Andrew Bailey), who has repeatedly reiterated the central bank's unwavering commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.。

A few days ago, Bailey complained about the negative effects of inflation on people's lives at the annual meeting of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC)。He pointed out that the current high inflation in the UK has reduced the real income of residents, residents across the UK are suffering from inflation, low-income households have been hit even harder, and some residents have had to cut back on spending on necessities.。He further said that high inflation always hits the least well-off the hardest。Our job is to ensure that inflation remains low and stable, so the central bank has to raise interest rates to reduce inflation。

In an effort to curb double-digit inflation, the Bank of England has previously raised its benchmark interest rate 12 times in a row and is currently at 4.5% level。It is reported that the bank's next interest rate decision will be announced on June 22, before the UK will also publish its June CPI data.。

Faced with such an aggressive rate hike cycle, even Bailey is a bit helpless。He said efforts were being made to find "evidence" of price cooling that would allow the monetary policy committee to "take a nap" after 12 consecutive rate hikes.。

Agency says Bank of England needs more data to support its action swap market bet on September policy rate to rise to 5%

In this regard, some institutional analysts believe that the Bank of England needs more data to support its decision-making, and called on the market to pay attention to the upcoming CPI data。

Mike Riddell, senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investments, believes upcoming UK inflation data may still be high。He points out that if core inflation rises, then it's easy for the market to think that the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate will peak above 5%。At the same time, he warned that if inflation slows more than expected, investors who sell UK bonds in anticipation of higher interest rates could scramble to buy them back, leading to "significantly lower gilt yields."。

Imogen Bachra, head of UK interest rate strategy at NatWest Markets, said it was now largely up to the data to justify the need for further policy tightening.。If headline inflation falls rapidly, coupled with signs of cooling labour demand, it should provide the Bank of England with some breathing space to ease the throttle。

Mizuho international interest rate strategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti (Evelyne Gomez-Liechti) pointed out that any signs of inflation as the Bank of England is expected to develop, will support the Bank of England in June to suspend interest rate hikes。However, even if Wednesday's data shows a sharp slowdown in inflation, policymakers will want to see the results of May's inflation and payroll data.。

In addition, the market also expressed doubts about the possible suspension of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.。

According to the analysis of interest rate hike pricing when inflation data is released this year, if the inflation data is more aggressive than expected, the interest rate hike preference will become more obvious, up to 25 basis points。

Currently, the currency swap market is also betting that the Bank of England will raise interest rates further to a 15-year high of 5 per cent by September and then leave them unchanged until they start cutting rates in May 2024.。

Today, according to the Office for National Statistics, the UK central government's debt payable was £9.8 billion in April, a record for the month.。Affected by the news and interest rate hike suspension is expected to ferment, the pound against the dollar day down 0.31%, currently trading at 1.23984, high probability recorded two consecutive negative。

Eagle Statement: This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment and operational advice.。Special reminder, the article is original content, without permission may not be reproduced。