微策略（纳斯达克：MTR）是一家成立于1985年的商业情报公司，于2020年8月采取了大胆举措，采用比特币作为其主要国库储备资产。这一决定标志着该公司的重大转变，将其转变为准比特币投资工具。然而，问题仍然存在：这种以比特币为中心的策略能否无限期持续下去，还是一场高风险赌博？

MicroStrategy的比特币策略：积累、积累、积累

MicroStrategy最初在比特币上投资了2.5亿美元，一直奉行尽可能积累更多比特币的策略。这不仅仅是一种被动的持有策略;这是一种由两种主要融资方法推动的积极追求：

• 市场上（ATM）产品： This involves selling shares of MicroStrategy stock directly into the market. While this generates funds for Bitcoin purchases, it also dilutes the value of existing shares, effectively spreading ownership across a larger pool of shareholders.
• 可转换票据发行： MicroStrategy also raises capital by issuing convertible notes, which are a form of debt that can be converted into equity (shares) at a later date. Initially, these notes offered a small interest payment, but the company has since moved to offering 0% interest notes, making them an attractive option for some investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin.

这一策略创造了一个正反馈循环：随着比特币价格上涨，MicroStrategy的股价往往会跟随上涨，并且通常会放大涨幅。股价的上涨使该公司更容易通过ATM发行和可转换票据筹集更多资本，然后用于购买更多比特币，进一步推高价格。这创造了一个看似“永久的机器”，比特币购买会推动股票升值，从而促进更多比特币购买。2024年12月13日，纳斯达克宣布MicroStrategy将于2024年12月23日加入其著名的纳斯达克100指数，这一动态进一步得到加强。预计这一纳入将为MTR股票带来更大的知名度和流动性，吸引更多的机构投资者，并可能使该公司更容易为未来的比特币收购筹集资金。

风险和担忧：一座基于比特币建造的房子？

关键的问题是：这个循环还能持续多久？这一策略面临着一些风险和担忧：

• 对比特币价格的依赖： MicroStrategy’s fate is now inextricably linked to the price of Bitcoin. A significant Bitcoin price crash could have a devastating impact on the company’s stock price. Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s Executive Chairman, has suggested that the company’s stock price tends to move approximately twice as much as Bitcoin in either direction. This means a 10% drop in Bitcoin could potentially lead to a 20% drop in MSTR stock, and vice versa.
• 稀释和债务： Continual share dilution through ATM offerings erodes the value of existing shares, potentially discouraging long-term investors. While 0% interest notes might seem advantageous in the short term, they still represent debt that must eventually be repaid or converted, further diluting shareholder value.
• 回报减少： As the Bitcoin market matures and becomes less volatile, the amplified gains seen by MSTR stock may diminish, making it harder to sustain the positive feedback loop.

为什么不直接购买比特币？制度争论

一个常见的问题是：为什么投资者会选择购买MQR股票，而不是简单地直接购买比特币？迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Sellor）认为，这种策略迎合了特定的投资者群体：

• 制度限制： Some institutional investors are restricted from holding Bitcoin directly due to regulatory or internal policy constraints. Investing in a publicly traded company like MicroStrategy offers them indirect exposure to Bitcoin.
• 退休账户限制： In some countries, like the UK with its Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs), retail investors are not allowed to hold Bitcoin within their retirement accounts. However, they can hold shares of NASDAQ-listed companies like MicroStrategy, providing a workaround for Bitcoin exposure within these accounts.

先行者优势和复制：独特地位

MicroStrategy无疑受益于成为该策略的早期采用者。然而，虽然其他公司理论上可以复制这种方法，但这并不是一项简单的任务。MicroStrategy持有比特币的规模以及市场对该公司作为比特币代理的看法创造了其他公司可能难以复制的独特优势。

结论：一场赌注很高的赌博

MicroStrategy的比特币策略是一种大胆且非常规的方法，在牛市中取得了可观的回报。然而，这也是一场严重依赖比特币持续上升轨迹的高风险赌博。虽然“永动机”迄今为止一直有效，但比特币低迷、持续稀释和债务增加的风险也不容忽视。