欧洲央行降息25个基点，拉加德新闻发布会结束。拉加德（和欧洲央行）评论的主题摘要：

增长与经济展望

• The 欧元区经济具有弹性, but the 增长前景正在恶化.

• Outlook remains 被不确定性笼罩, with consumers likely to 减少支出.

• 贸易中断 and geopolitical risks are 加大投资力度.

• Growth in Q1 is likely positive; 国防开支 seen boosting manufacturing.

• Risks to growth are 倾向于下行, especially from 出口受到抑制 and 融资条件.

通货膨胀与货币政策

• Most indicators point to 潜在通胀率趋于2%.

• 工资正在放缓, and domestic inflation is easing.

• Long-term inflation expectations are 锚定在2%左右, aiding credibility.

• 强势欧元 may reduce inflation; 进口成本上升 could lift it.

• ECB removed “restrictiveness” from its language; in today’s volatile world, it’s 不再有意义.

• ECB will define the 适当的政策立场 using 数据、准备性和敏捷性.

• Policy will be 逐个会议, using whatever tools are needed.

政策立场与沟通

• Today's 一致下调25个基点, though some governors had leaned toward a pause weeks ago.

• ECB will undertake 密集的情景分析 in coming weeks.

• ECB does not 目标外汇利率, but 考虑外汇 in its decisions.

• The neutral rate is only applicable in a “无冲击”的世界, which we're clearly not in.

• ECB remains 灵活务实, guided by “安全、可靠”的数据.

贸易、关税和外汇

• 关税是一种负需求冲击; they will weigh on growth, and inflation effects may grow over time.

• ECB is 尽管存在关税风险，仍坚持预测.

• 尚未观察到美国关税导致客户行为发生任何变化。

• On U.S. trade tensions, the 欧盟最明显的回应 is a 零对零关税协议.

• Expect 货物改道 as tariffs disrupt traditional supply chains.

刺激措施和额外措施

• 政策制定者没有讨论刺激措施 at the meeting.

• ECB will act 如果需要, but currently believes the 调整后的政策路径合适.

不确定性和外部风险

• 地缘政治风险, particularly around trade, are 不确定性的主要来源.

• 不确定性加剧使得判断通胀和增长动态变得更加困难。

• Lagarde admitted she 无法判断我们是否处于不确定性的顶峰.

技术上，欧元兑美元试图在下跌时走低，但在跌破100小时均线1.13495后，最低只能达到1.1337，然后反弹。目前价格为1.1360。当天的交易区间为74点。上个月的平均值是131点。

卖家们有机会了。他们错过了。需要跌破100小时平均水平并保持在以下。尽管美联储乐于观望，而欧洲央行则乐于降息，但欧元兑美元仍走强。

当然，特朗普总统现在对美联储主席大加批评，迫不及待地想用更温和的人取代他。当然，最重要的利率可能是10年期收益率，而不是短期美联储利率。债券市场将放松或收紧。美联储似乎有意关注通胀风险。.