• 特朗普可能推迟广泛的行业关税可能会减轻直接的经济压力，缓解投资者对股票和加密货币的焦虑。
• 缩小关税焦点可能会支持比特币和以太坊的短期复苏，扭转2月份宏观驱动的跌破90，000美元的局面。
• 特朗普贸易决定持续的不可预测性导致宏观波动加剧，导致加密货币市场反应迟钝，容易受到突然的政策逆转的影响。

特朗普总统计划于4月2日宣布新一轮互惠关税。这将旨在减少美国1.2万亿美元的贸易赤字。他称之为美国经济的“解放日”。

由于特朗普早些时候的关税严重影响了加密货币市场并引发了清算，他4月2日的决定也可能对市场产生显着影响。

特朗普的解放日关税计划有什么新内容？

Trump may delay some of the most aggressive sector-specific tariffs. This might include industries like those in autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

Instead of blanket sector tariffs, the US might focus only on countries with the largest trade surpluses and the highest barriers to US goods. These are informally referred to as the “Dirty 15”—a group of 10 to 15 countries.

However, the decision is still not final. Trump could still change course, as he’s done in past announcements. 

“我可能会给很多国家机会，但这是互惠的，但我们可能会比这更好。你知道，长期以来我们对很多国家都很好。但我称之为解放日。4月2日是解放日，”美国总统宣布。

推迟或缩小关税范围可能会缓解股市和加密货币市场的一些压力。

正如我们最近看到的那样，当关税看起来激进时，市场往往会下跌。当价格看起来更加谨慎或推迟时，价格往往会稳定或反弹。

特朗普关税计划下加密货币市场的可能情况

The April 2 tariff announcement could impact the crypto market in a few key ways, depending on how aggressive or targeted the final policy is. Here’s a breakdown of how and why it might move crypto prices.

如果关税激进（广泛、高关税）

• 风险情绪下降: Equity and bond markets would likely react negatively to aggressive tariffs, especially on autos, chips, or pharma. That tends to spill over into crypto, which investors still treat as a risk-on asset class.
  
• 比特币和以太坊可能会下跌, as traders hedge against slower global growth and increased inflation risk.
  
• Capital flight into USD or cash could trigger 短期流出 from speculative assets like altcoins.
  

例如，当特朗普在2月份重申征收高额关税时，比特币在市场更广泛的不安情绪中跌破9万美元。同样的模式可能会重复。

如果关税缩小（延迟或选择性瞄准）

• 市场缓解反弹: If Trump’s administration confirms they’ll delay auto/chip/pharma tariffs and only target a few countries with high trade barriers, investor anxiety may ease.
  
• That could fuel a 加密货币价格短期复苏, particularly if equity markets also rebound.
  
• 其更加明确 reduces volatility, which markets—including crypto—tend to reward.
  

例如，当特朗普本月早些时候暗示灵活性时，比特币反弹至88，000美元左右。关税的缩小可能会引发类似的上涨。

Overall, the crypto market has been highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals lately. Tariffs drive fears of slower global trade and higher inflation.

All of these affect investor risk appetite. Even though crypto isn’t directly tied to trade flows, it’s deeply entwined with broader liquidity conditions and investor sentiment.