欧洲央行将于明天召开会议，预计降息25个基点。在做出这一决定后，欧元兑美元正跌至8月2日以来的最低水平。此外，技术上该价格刚刚跌破200日移动平均线1.08728。当前价格为1.08660。

卖家自8月2日以来首次跌破200日移动平均线。

当然，欧洲央行利率决定存在风险。事后会出现反弹吗？或者卖家是否会继续施加压力，让交易员分别寻找7月底/8月初的低点1.08248和1.07775？

现在更保守的停止水平是1.0899至1.09125之间的波动区域。今天最初的低点之后的反弹修正高点确实与该区域的低点（以及1.0900的自然阻力）陷入停滞。

从根本上讲，高盛持谨慎态度（亚当早些时候发帖）：

要点：

• 有限的欧洲央行指导：
  The ECB is expected to maintain its cautious approach and not move towards more explicit forward guidance at this week's meeting, despite the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut.

• 高折旧标准：
  A one-at-a-time cutting cycle means that policymakers may require convincing data to support each subsequent cut, raising the threshold for EUR depreciation. This dynamic contributes to the euro's relative resilience this year, even amid more downbeat economic data.

• 积极主动姿态的潜力：
  If the ECB were to adopt a more proactive stance and diverge from the Federal Reserve's policy, it could create powerful conditions for EUR/USD to weaken. However, such a shift seems unlikely in the immediate future.

• 贸易建议：
  While Goldman Sachs sees downside risks for the euro and continues to recommend trading it on the funding side, they caution that simply moving faster is insufficient to guarantee significant EUR/USD depreciation.

因此，如果您是买家，我会等待轮调回到200日移动平均线上方。目前，随着200日移动平均线的突破，没有技术上的买入动力。