After a 四周内回调14%, the NASDAQ futures (NQ1!) have 回落7%左右 in just the past week and a half. The price climbed steadily into the 上升通道顶部带, only to stall out. That’s where the market sent its usual message: 迟到的公牛没有免费乘车.

Anyone who jumped in at the 本周初, chasing momentum, is unlikely to be rewarded without some pain. That’s just how the market works — it rarely hands out profits to late entries without a shakeout. A 干净的V形复苏很少见, especially after such a heavy selloff.

Even in the event of a 大逆转, the market 需要时间建立基地. That usually means a 交易区间 develops in the bottoming zone. Within that range, 腿上下是意料之中的. It’s the price of admission — and a method to trap both bulls and bears.

If this rebound is the real deal, and if we even go on to make 先新低, the principle holds even stronger: 市场不会让后期看涨者毫发无伤地逃脱. They’ll be tested — emotionally and financially.

底线：迟到的公牛没有免费午餐

Even if the market has bottomed, don’t count on a smooth ride. 预计交易范围, expect some 回撤, and 别指望抓住底部然后直线上升. There’s more 价格发现 to go through before a lasting rally emerges.

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