The sellers in USDCAD had their opportunity on the break below the bottom of the Red Box consolidation zone at 1.4268 and the 100-day moving average at 1.4260. However, the bearish push failed to gather momentum, with price holding just above the March 6 low at 1.4238. That failure to break lower has shifted the near-term tone, as buyers pushed the pair back into the Red Box zone, reclaiming the 1.4268 level.

Currently, price is facing resistance at the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, now around 1.4318 (green line on the chart above). A break above this level would put the next technical target at the 100-bar MA at 1.4347. If buyers can push beyond that, the bullish bias would strengthen, with the top of the Red Box consolidation at 1.4471 back in play.

From a fundamental perspective, U.S. tariff threats—especially those targeting the auto sector—are adding downside risk for the Canadian dollar, given Canada’s strong reliance on auto exports. This backdrop could support further upside in USDCAD if protectionist trade policy escalates.

Having said that, the spike higher to 1.47927 in early February was off tariffs, as was the subsequent highs on March 3/4 and March 11 (the breaks to the upside outside the Red Box). Now with auto tariffs and "Liberation Day" ahead, the price still remains below the 200 and 100 bar MAs near the middle of the Red Box. So relatively speaking, the upside has been less and less over time. That keeps the sellers in play despite the tariff risks.

Key levels to watch:

• Support: 1.4268 (Red Box low), 1.4260 (100-day MA), 1.4238 (March 6 low)

• Resistance: 1.4318 (200-bar MA), 1.4347 (100-bar MA), 1.4471 (Red Box high)

The sellers had their shot. They missed. The ball is now in the buyers' court—momentum above the key MAs will be crucial.