Internet reports that Goldman Sachs significantly raised its forecast for U.S. tariffs in 2025 in a research report early this morning, warning that escalating trade tensions may seriously affect economic growth, inflation and employment. The bank currently expects the average U.S. tariff rate to rise by 15 percentage points in 2025, above the previous baseline of 10 percentage points. The main reason for the increase is that the comprehensive "reciprocal tariffs" expected to be announced by Trump on April 2 will impose an average of 15% tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, and the average actual impact of the tariffs is expected to increase by 9 percentage points. Goldman Sachs raised its core PCE inflation forecast for the U.S. end of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, citing the impact of rising import costs on inflation. GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.0% in the fourth quarter, down 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, and the unemployment rate is expected to climb to 4.5% by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 35 percent, citing weak consumer and business sentiment and signs that policymakers may be more willing to accept recent economic pain in pursuit of broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed, the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, with sentiment and policy risks weighing more on the economy than in recent years. (Jin Shi)