On Monday, April 24, European Central Bank Executive Committee member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview that he could not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the May 4 interest rate decision meeting.。She noted that the available data would be reviewed at that point in time, although current data showed that inflation was still higher than expected and the economy was more resilient than expected.。

In addition, in response to market concerns about the banking crisis, the German official said that while the recent turmoil in financial conditions had led to higher uncertainty and could continue to lead to tighter credit conditions, loan growth had slowed before the banking turmoil。She further noted that so far, there is no particular sign that economic development is weakening, and at this time, there is no reason to believe that a recession is coming.。

It's worth noting that the official has always been known for his hawkish views。Back in November 2021, she warned that the threat of inflation was growing and was one of the first officials to notice the rise in inflation.。In September 2022, while the entire eurozone was in a continuing economic downturn, she was still determined to say that the ECB needed to take all necessary measures to control inflation.。

In this interview, Schnabel also expressed his views on the shrinking table。She said the goal is to completely eliminate reinvestment projects under the asset purchase program, and the exact timing will be decided soon.。

After Schnabel, the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, also expressed a hawkish view, saying that the ECB should raise interest rates again on current macroeconomic data alone.。

At present, market participants are more inclined to think that the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.。

In terms of data, on April 26, Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone, released its May Gfk consumer confidence index.。German Gfk consumer confidence index for May from -29, data show.3 Improved to -25.7, improved for the seventh month in a row, suggesting consumer confidence is building momentum, boosting the euro.。

On the dollar side, First Republic's performance thunder renews concerns about the spread of the banking crisis。Separately, the U.S. debt crisis is once again at a standstill。Although Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives passed the debt ceiling bill yesterday, the bill is unlikely to pass in the Democratic-controlled Senate because it contains provisions that "significantly reduce government spending."。

In such an environment, markets are beginning to expect the Fed to start an easing cycle in the second half of the year and the dollar to weaken。

As of press time, Europe and the United States within the day up 0.04%, trading at 1.0461, the monthly K-line probability recorded 7 consecutive positive, has reached the year's high。