FundamentalOverview

Gold is trading lower todayas Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, andthey just need the House now to get a red sweep.

That is the most bearishscenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier topass which should lead to higher growth and less rate cuts expectations. As ofnow, the probabilities are in favour of the Republicans.

Given the above and thestrong US data we keep on getting, the Fed might start to change its stance,and we could see a much earlier than expected pause in 2025.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold bounced near the major trendline as the buyers stepped in toposition for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand,will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into newlows.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we now have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearishmomentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline toposition for the break below the major trendline. The buyers, on the otherhand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish betsinto new highs.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that the price bounced from the lower bound of the average daily range for today. We can also see that wehave a pretty strong resistance zone around the 2730 level now.

The sellers will likelypile in around the resistance and the trendline to keep pushinginto new lows, while the buyers will look for a breakout to the upside toinvalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-timehigh.

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC Policy Decision. On Friday,we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.

See the video below