FundamentalOverview

Gold’s rally stalled thisweek as the market participants shave been waiting for the US reciprocaltariffs plan announcement due today at 4 pm ET. The precious metal has been ona steady uptrend lately as traders have been finding shelter amidstagflationary risks.

Today’s event will triggerhuge moves across the board. Better than expected news will likely weigh ongold in the short term as the stagflationary fears should ease. On the otherhand, a worse than expected outcome should give gold another boost.

In the bigger picture, aslong as the Fed doesn’t change its reaction function and doesn’t consider ratehikes, the trend should remain to the upside as real yields will continue tofall amid the stagflationary pricing.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold’s rally stalled this week as traders have been awaiting the US reciprocaltariffs plan announcement due today. From a risk management perspective, thebuyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the major trendline to position for further upside,while the sellers will want to see the price breaking below the trendline tostart targeting a deeper correction into the 2832 level.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. If we were to get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect thebuyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally intonew highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breakinglower to pile in for a drop into the next major trendline.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that the price broke below the minor trendline that was defining thebullish momentum on this timeframe. This could indicate that a pullback mightbe in the cards although the technicals will likely be useless today given theannouncement.

We have a minor supportaround the 3100 level where the buyers will likely lean onto to position for arally into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extendthe pullback into the next trendline.

The red lines define the average daily range but they will be unreliable todayas the market reaction after the tariffs announcement will likely be biggerthan any day in the past few weeks.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we have the US ADP and the unveilingof the US reciprocal tariffs plan. Tomorrow, we get the US ISM Services PMI andthe latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with theUS NFP report and Fed Chair Powell speech.

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