Fed-heavy CME, “Fed Watch” forecasts
Hawk News
2024-10-24 16:13:37
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The Federal Reserve released a national economic situation survey report (also known as the "Beige Book"). The report showed that U.S. economic activity remained stagnant from September to early October, and the number of corporate recruiters increased. The "Beige Book" affirmed the results of the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation, saying that inflationary pressures in the United States continue to ease.
According to CME's "Federal Reserve Observation"
The probability that the Fed will drop 25 basis points by November is 93%
The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged is 7%;
The probability of keeping current interest rates unchanged by December is 2.1%
The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 32.6%
The cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 65.4%
The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 0%
·Original
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