FundamentalOverview

The US Dollar continues toconsolidate despite the higher-than-expected inflation figures and a lessdovish Powell last week. The market’s pricing remained largely unchanged atthree rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal thatthe market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need strongerreasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This could lead to some generalUS Dollar weakness in the short term.

On the AUD side, the marketdoesn’t expect the RBA to cut rates in December but sees two rate cuts in 2025.The Australian economic data remains solid while inflation continues to fallslowly keeping the RBA in a neutral stance.

AUDUSDTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that AUDUSD is now testing the key swing low level at 0.6540. This is wherewe can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level toposition for a drop into the 0.6365 level next. The buyers, on the other hand,will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets intonew highs.

AUDUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have also the 38.2% Fibonacciretracement level adding some confluenceto the swing low level. This should technically strengthen this resistancezone. A break to the upside, will likely trigger a rally into the major trendlineand the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around the 0.66 handle.

AUDUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor support zone around the 0.6480 level. If we were toget a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support toposition for a rally into the major trendline, while the sellers will look fora break lower to target new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we concludethe week with the Australian and US PMIs.