FundamentalOverview

The USD got a bit of aboost on Monday following the better than expected USPMIs although the gains were not widespread. We’ve also seen some bids inthe greenback yesterday following the weak USConsumer Confidence where inflation expectations jumped to yet anotherhigh.

Overall, the market isstill pricing between two to three rate cuts this year and the sentimentremains tentative as we approach the Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2^nd.

On the JPY side, we haven’tseen much change in the domestic fundamentals with governorUeda today repeating the same old comments. The market is still pricingaround 36 bps of tightening by year-end with particular focus on inflation dataand the unveiling of the US tariffs plan next Wednesday.

USDJPYTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that USDJPY broke above the major trendline this week. This is where wecan expect the buyers to pile in to position for a rally into the 160.00 handlenext. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling backbelow the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and start targeting newlows.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline now defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better riskto reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will lookfor a break below the trendline to regain control and pile in for a drop intothe 140.00 handle next.

USDJPY TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’snot much else we can add here as there’s no clear level where buyers or sellerscan lean onto except the trendline around the 149.50 level. The red linesdefine the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Tokyo CPI and the US PCEreport.

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