Recently, the euro zone in June inflation data have been released。It is understood that Spain's inflation rate this month has been the first to fall below the 2% target set by the ECB, recording 1.6%, performing well; Italian inflation also fell to 6.7%, falling back more than expected to a 14-month low, boosting the ECB's confidence in managing inflation。

German inflation unexpectedly up in June

Surprisingly, Germany, the "top student" of recent inflation governance, recorded an unexpected rise in the data in June.。On June 29, local time, the German Federal Statistical Office announced the country's preliminary inflation situation in June.。German June inflation at 6.4%, picking up again after three consecutive months of sequential declines。

Germany's Federal Statistical Office said that in terms of ring data, Germany's initial HICP rose by 0 in June..4%, also higher than expected 0.3 per cent; German core inflation, excluding volatile commodities such as food and energy, is expected to be 5 per cent in June..8%, also higher than 5 in May.4%。Specifically, food prices remained the main driver of higher inflation in June, up 13.7%。Energy prices rose less than last year's average in June, up 3.0%。

As Europe's "economic engine," Germany's rising inflation rate has once again raised concerns at the ECB.。According to the previous statement, the bank in July to continue to raise the euro zone policy rate action is basically a certainty。

On June 27, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made a statement at the ECB's annual economic forum, saying: "Unless there are major changes, we will continue to raise interest rates in July."。At the forum, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also said that the current suspension of interest rate hikes will not be included in the scope of policy considerations, and continued inflation, the bank will "continue to act" until the established inflation target is reached.。

But officials are far from certain about the bank's policy actions in September.。

On Wednesday, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview that core inflation is likely to be more sticky than expected.。He went on to say that it was already a "fait accompli" for the ECB to raise interest rates again in July, and that what to do at the September meeting remained an open question.。

Yesterday, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, also made a statement.。Speaking at a financial stability conference in Madrid, he said it was too early to predict the path of monetary policy in the second half of the year: "It seems to me that the September meeting is absolutely up in the air.。"

As a result, the market has speculated that the ECB is likely to continue to tighten monetary policy in September after the release of the German inflation data.。

Commerzbank said economists expect overall inflation to fall in the summer as energy and food inflation slows。However, core inflation is likely to be well above the ECB's 2% target for a longer period of time, with the ECB raising interest rates by a record 400 basis points over the past year and further increases expected in July and September.。

In addition, Carsten Brzeski, head of global macro at ING (ING), also noted that "a closer look at the data reveals that the trend of slower inflation will gain new and even stronger momentum after the summer."。Until there are clear signs that core inflation has reached an inflection point, the ECB will not change its tightening stance and will continue to raise interest rates. "。

Eurozone June CPI data to be released tomorrow

As of press time, the euro was down slightly against the dollar on the day..05%, reported 1.0863; EUR / CNY (CFETS) down 0.19%, reported 7.88; the euro against the Hong Kong dollar also fell during the day, now at 8..5113; U.S. index continues to remain above 103, down slightly on day 0.01%, reported 103.3340。

According to Eurostat data, the overall inflation rate in the euro area in May this year was 6.1%, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates eight times in a row, a total of 400 basis points, raising the key deposit rate to 3.5%, the highest value in 22 years。

Tomorrow, the agency will release the euro zone June CPI data。Eurozone June reconciled CPI up 5 year-on-year, according to market forecasts.6%, lower than the previous value of 6.1%; core and CPI are expected to rise 6% YoY in June..7%, slightly lower than the previous value of 6.9%; expected to be 5% YoY in June, excluding food, energy, tobacco and alcohol..5%, higher than the previous value of 5.3%。It is believed that the release of the data will make the ECB's monetary policy path in the third quarter increasingly clear.。

For the European and American markets, Goldman Sachs said it would reduce its 3, 6 and 12-month expectations for the euro against the dollar from 1.05 、 1.05 and 1.10 up to 1.07, 1.10 and 1.12。Updated data maintained year-end expectations at 1.10 unchanged, but indicates less short-term downside, and the euro is expected to expand its rally against the dollar after breaking its peak.。