Yesterday, USDCHF buyers made a push higher, breaking above the ceiling near 0.8848. However, on two separate occasions, bullish momentum faded just ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (drawn from the February–March decline) at 0.8862. The high reached 0.8855 before stalling, and the inability to extend further prompted a downside rotation.

In early trading today, the pair slipped back below both the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which currently converge near 0.8825. That breakdown shifts the near-term technical bias back to the downside. The 200-day moving average, sitting at 0.88088, becomes the next critical support target.

It’s worth noting that over the past 8–9 trading days, the price has seen several false breaks around these moving averages as the market searched for direction. Still, a decisive move below the 200-day MA would add to the bearish narrative. Beneath that, a key support zone at 0.8794–0.87995—defined by multiple lows from March 21, 24, 25, and more recently last Thursday and Friday—would come into focus.

To the upside, buyers would need to reclaim the 100/200-hour moving averages and push back above 0.8848 to regain control. Ultimately, the 38.2% retracement at 0.8862 remains the key hurdle that must be broken and held for any sustained bullish momentum.

Key levels:

• Resistance: 0.8848 (swing high area), 0.8862 (38.2% Fib)

• Swing/bias defining level: 0.8825 (100/200-hour MA)

• Support: 0.88088 (200-day MA), 0.87895-0.8800 (swing area)