EURUSD has broken below the swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767, pressured by renewed tariff headlines and inflation concerns, which were echoed in more hawkish comments from Fed's Musalem.

The decline also takes price further below the 100-hour moving average at 1.0812 (and moving lower), reinforcing the bearish momentum as sellers continue to press lower.

Looking ahead, the pair is now approaching a critical technical zone near 1.0726–1.0730, defined by the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the February 28 low. This confluence of support should slow the downside momentum and attract dip buyers, potentially setting the stage for a battle between bulls and bears at this key area.

Much will depend on how the tariff situation unfolds. As Adam suggests, the initial bark may be worse than the eventual bite, but the market often struggles with uncertainty. And when the dust is kicked up, it can linger for some time.

That’s where technical levels offer clarity. For now, sellers have the short-term edge, but to extend control, they’ll need to push price back below the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement. Failing to do so would suggest the current pullback is merely a correction within the broader uptrend, rather than a deeper reversal.

Risk for sellers looking for more downside is 1.07767.