The USD is steady vs the EUR with only a 28 pip trading range from low to high (vs 83 pip average over the last month). The GBPUSD is higher (lower USD) and in the process moved back above its near converged 100/200 hour MAs. THe USDJPY is lower (lower USD) after a successful test on the topside of its 100/200 hour MA, found willing sellers.

The so-called "Liberation Day" has arrived with Pres. Trump scheduled to outline his plans for tariffs in a Rose Garden ceremony at 4 PM. Yesterday it was reported that there are 3 options:

• Blanket 20% tariff on all. This was said to be the least likely
• A tiered system of 3 separate rates. You are bad, badder, badest.
• Country-by-country rate

The easiest would be #1 but is that recipricol? #3 would be a "truer" recipricol arrangement. #2 is a combination of easier and somewhat recipricol (assuming it is calculated as such and not subject to "teachers pet" concessions. .

Also,

• Pharma, semi's would be announced later
• Canada and Mexico tariffs are expected to be lifted
• Auto tariffs are a "go"

The overall story has many twists and turns to date. What he decides is anyone's guess but speculation is "what is done today, will be different tomorrow."

On the economic calendar:

• At 8:15 AM, the ADP national point from mortal be released with expectations of 115K vs 77K last month. The report is a prelude to the the BLS jobs report which is expected to show a gain of 137K with an unemployment rate of 4.1%
• At 10 AM ET, the factory orders for the month February will be announced with expectations of 0.5% versus 1.7% last month. Within the report would be a revised durable goods number. Number days ago the preliminary report was released with the durable goods coming in at 0.9% versus 3.3% last month.
• Crude oil inventories data will be released at 10:30 AM with crude stocks expected a drawdown of -2.116 million. Gasoline is expected drawdown of -1.720 million and distillates a drawdown -1.013 million. The private data released late yesterday showed a big build in crude stocks by 6.037 million. Gasoline did have a drawdown of -1.628 million close to the consensus estimate.

As far as the Fed speak today

• Wednesday, 4/2/2025 at 4:30 PM US Eastern Time – Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks virtually on “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking” before the Griswold Center and Julis-Rabinowitz Center 2025 Public Talk.

Looking at the US stock market in premarket trading, indices are trading near lows ahead of the open at 9:30 AM ET

• Dow industrial average -285 points. The index fell -11.8 points yesterday
• S&P index -50.5 points. Yesterday the index rose 21.22 points
• NASDAQ index -225 points. Yesterday the index rose 150.60 points

In the European equity markets:

• German DAX -1.56%
• France's CAC -0.90%
• UK's FTSE 100 -0.83%
• Spain's Ibex -0.28%
• Italy's FTSE MIB -1.18%

In the US debt market, yields are mostly lower

• 2-year yield 3.56%, -0.7 basis points
• 5-year yield 3.890%, -1.7 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.138%, -1.8 point basis points
• 30 year yield 4.502% -1.3 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is trading down $0.40 or -0.56% at $70.80
• Gold is trading up $4.60 at $3118. A new all-time high was reached yesterday $3149.03.
• Bitcoin is trading down $400 and $84,770