The USDCAD began the week near its lowest level since mid-December. After an early rebound, the pair moved above the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line) on Wednesday, extending gains toward the 200-hour moving average (green line) on both Wednesday and Thursday. However, sellers defended the 200-hour MA, leading to a decline alongside broader USD weakness on Thursday.

By the session close on Thursday, USDCAD had fallen below the 100-hour MA (blue line), reinforcing a bearish bias.

Today,the pair attempted a modest recovery but stalled near the 100-hour MA during the European session currenly at 1.41968, failing to generate upside momentum.

Stronger-than-expected Canadian retail sales data pressured the pair lower, bringing focus back to key support at 1.4158 (weekly low) and 1.4150 (last Friday’s low). The latest low in the North American session reached 1.4172.

For buyers to regain confidence, USDCAD must break above the 100-hour MA, with the 200-hour MA at 1.4221 acting as a crucial resistance level. Without a move above these levels, sellers remain in control.