FundamentalOverview

Last week, despite thehigher-than-expected inflation figures and a less dovish Powell, the market’spricing remained largely unchanged at three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This might be a signal thatthe market is now fine with the current pricing, and we will need strongerreasons to price out the remaining rate cuts. This opened the door for somepullback with gold rising above key technical levels.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid theFed’s easing cycle, but the short-term corrections will be triggered by arepricing in rate cuts expectations.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that gold managed to bounce back and rise above the major trendline around the 2600 level. The buyerswill likely pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the trendlineto position for a rally into a new all-time high.

The sellers, on the otherhand, will want to see the price breaking back below the trendline to positionfor a drop into the next major trendline around the 2400.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. Thesellers will likely lean on it to position for the break below the majortrendline, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase thebullish bets into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. Ifwe were to get a pullback, the buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keeppushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower toincrease the bearish bets into new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Thisweek is pretty empty on the data front with the most important releasesscheduled for the latter part of the week. On Thursday, we get the latest USJobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PMIs.

See the video below