Gold Technical Analysis – Have we reached an inflection point?
. Fundamental Overview . It looks like gold reached an inflection point yesterday. After a strong rally on Monday, the precious metal erased all the gains and eventually fell to new lows.
FundamentalOverview
It looks like gold reachedan inflection point yesterday. After a strong rally on Monday, the preciousmetal erased all the gains and eventually fell to new lows. Trump deliveredsome key comments late yesterday where he not only sounded much less hawkish onChina but also made clear that he has no intention to replace Fed Chair Powell(he couldn’t do it anyway).
The stagflationary pricinggot gold to these prices, and as we start to price out that risk, then we couldsee a notable correction especially considering that “long gold” has been themost crowded trade. The parabolic rally was a clear hint.
In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fedeasing. But in the short-term more positive news on the tariffs front should seemore downside for gold as the market readjusts to new conditions.
GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we cansee that gold erased all the Monday’s gains. From a risk managementperspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previoushigh at 3167 to position for further upside, while the sellers will look for abreak lower to increase the bearish bets into the major trendline around the3100 level.
Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that the price bounced near the most recent swing low around the 3284level. This is where the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the levelto position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, willwant to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3167level next.
Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum onthis timeframe. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a definedrisk above it to target the 3167 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, willlook for a break higher to pile in for a rally into a new all-time high. Thered lines define the average daily range for today.
UpcomingCatalysts
Today we have the US Flash PMI, while tomorrowwe get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. As a reminder though, the marketis focused on tariff related news at the moment, so the data is not asmarket-moving as it used to be in the past months.
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