The AUDUSD has shown a constructive technical shift, breaking above both the 100- and 200-bar moving averages (blue and green lines on the chart below) on the 4-hour chart. This move is significant as it signals a potential change in short-term momentum. These moving averages, now clustered around 0.6302–0.6308, had previously capped upside attempts, but with price now trading above, they serve as immediate support. A sustained hold above this zone keeps buyers in control and opens the door for further gains.

The rally was sparked after a successful defense of support near 0.6254 to 0.6268 — a key area defined by a rising trendline and a prior swing area. This zone was tested multiple times and held firm, giving bulls the confidence to step in and drive the pair higher. The price structure has since improved, forming a series of higher lows and attempting to build toward a breakout.

To the upside, initial resistance is seen near 0.6338 which is the home of the 100-day MA. . Beyond that, traders will look toward the 0.6363 level (was swing high on March 6 and again on March 20). Above that and the high from last week at 0.6388 becomes the target followed by the 38.2% of the move down from the September 2024 high at 0.64136.

If the price cannot hold the 100 bar MA at 0.6302, that may shift buyers to sellers on the failed break.

In summary, the AUDUSD is showing encouraging signs of recovery. As long as price holds above the broken moving averages, the bias remains tilted higher. The next test lies in clearing the 100 day MA and staying above that level at 0.6338.