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RBA's September interest rate resolution: benchmark interest rate on hold, inflation back to target range by the end of 2025

On September 5, local time, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged at 4.1%, keeping the foreign exchange settlement balance interest rate unchanged at 4%。

On September 5, local time, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced that the benchmark interest rate would remain unchanged at 4.1%, keeping the foreign exchange settlement balance interest rate unchanged at 4%。While the RBA keeps interest rates at their highest level since 2012, the decision is also largely in line with market expectations, with Australia and the U.S. under pressure to the downside, but short-term volatility is modest。

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In a press release on the interest rate decision, the current chairman of the RBA, Philip Lowe, announced that the RBA has decided to keep interest rates at 4.10% unchanged。He recalled and explained: "Interest rates have increased by 4 percentage points since May last year.。Higher interest rates are working to create a more sustainable supply-demand balance in the economy and will continue to do so。With that in mind and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the committee decided again this month to leave interest rates unchanged, which will provide more time to assess the impact of the hikes so far and the economic outlook.。"

Commenting on the current level of inflation, Lowe said: "Australia's inflation has exceeded its peak, with the monthly CPI indicator in July showing a further decline.。But inflation is still too high and will continue for some time。While commodity price inflation has eased, prices for many services are rising rapidly and rent increases are intensifying.。"

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He predicted: "CPI will continue to decline and return to the 2% to 3% target range by the end of 2025.。"

He continued: "The Australian economy is experiencing a period of below-trend growth which is expected to continue for some time.。High inflation is affecting people's real incomes, household consumption growth is weak, and so is housing investment。Still, conditions in the labor market remain tight, albeit with some relief.。Given that economic and employment growth is expected to be below trend, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually rise to 4% later next year..About 5%。Wage growth has accelerated over the past year, but remains in line with the inflation target amid faster productivity growth.。"

Like all major central bankers, Lowe reaffirmed his determination to combat inflation and patiently explained the harm that inflation poses to the economy and people's lives: "Returning inflation to its target level within a reasonable time frame remains our top priority.。High inflation makes life difficult for everyone and hurts the functioning of the economy。It erodes the value of savings, hurts household budgets, makes it harder for businesses to plan and invest, and increases income inequality.。If high inflation is entrenched in people's expectations, the cost of reducing inflation in the future will be very high, including higher interest rates and greater unemployment.。medium-term inflation expectations have so far been consistent with the inflation target, it is important to keep this。"

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Lowe believes there is still a lot of uncertainty about Australia's economic outlook。The continued rise in the price of overseas services is surprising, as observed by the RBA, and the same is likely to happen in Australia。There is also uncertainty about the lagged effects of monetary policy and how firms "pricing decisions and wages will respond to slowing growth while the labor market remains tight。The outlook for household consumption also remains uncertain, with many households experiencing painful fiscal austerity, while some are benefiting from rising house prices, large savings buffers and higher interest income.。

Looking ahead, Lowe suggested that we may need to tighten monetary policy further in the future to ensure inflation returns to target levels within a reasonable time frame, but this will continue to depend on data and changing risk assessments.。In taking its decision, the Committee will continue to follow closely developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.。The Committee remains determined to return inflation to the target level and will take the necessary measures to achieve this objective。

It is worth noting that this meeting is the last one chaired by the current chairman of the Australian Federal Reserve, Philip Lowe (Philip Lowe), and the current vice chairman, Michele Bullock (Michele Bullock), will take over as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve on the 18th of this month, and she will be the first female president in the history of the Australian Federal Reserve.。

Brock, 60, is understood to have been deputy governor of the RBA since April 2022 and has worked with the institution for more than 40 years.。As RBA's new governor, Mr Bullock will face a number of challenges, including tackling inflationary pressures, managing monetary policy to boost growth and maintaining the stability of Australia's financial system.。While she was well received, she had less of a background in central bank policy before becoming deputy last April.。

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In response to the appointment, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called Bullock a "distinguished economist and leader with a deep understanding of the role and operations of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which she has gradually accumulated over her long and distinguished career with the central bank."。"

Earlier, Bullock said in a statement issued by the central bank: "I am deeply honored to be appointed to this important position.。This is a challenging time, but I will have the support of a strong executive team and board.。I am committed to ensuring that the Reserve Bank of Australia meets its policy and operational objectives for the benefit of the Australian people.。"

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