FundamentalOverview

The US CPI yesterday missed expectations across the boardbut the details that feed into the Core PCE were less encouraging with earlyestimates increasing. The price action in the USD has been mixed following thedata release as the markets are likely waiting for the US PPI today to getbetter estimates for the PCE.

On the NZD side, we haven’tgot much in terms of new data. As a reminder, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected at the lastmeeting but Governor Orr sounded less dovish than expectedas the central bank wants to slow the pace of easing as they approach theirestimated neutral rate. The market sees a total of 65 bps of easing byyear-end.

NZDUSDTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that NZDUSD continues to range. From a risk management perspective, thesellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 0.5850 level toposition for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want tosee the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.60 handlenext.

NZDUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a support zone around the 0.5680 level. If we get apullback into it, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk belowthe level to position for a rally into the 0.5850 level next. The sellers, onthe other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase thebearish bets into the lows.

NZDUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor resistance around the 0.5741 level. The sellers willlikely lean on the resistance with a defined risk above it to target thesupport, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullishbets into the 0.5850 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we get the US PPI data and the USJobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University ofMichigan Consumer Sentiment report.