FundamentalOverview

This week has been allabout tariffs. On Monday we opened with a big gap lower as Trump followedthrough with his tariffs threats and imposed them on Canada, Mexico and Chinaover the weekend.

As it’s been the case forprevious tariffs actions though, the market started to cautiously fade thereaction in expectation of some kind of a deal. That’s exactly what happened aswe got the news on Monday afternoon that the tariffs on Mexico were paused for30 days after positive negotiations.

The market bounced backimmediately, and the bulls started to build their positions with moreconviction. There’s still the question with China but given that China’sresponse has been very soft and we haven’t got any negative news yet, themarket is keeping with the optimism.

The focus now switched tothe US NFP report tomorrow. The labour market data throughout January has beengood, so we might see an overall good NFP report as well. The focus remains oninflation for the Fed, so even if we get a strong NFP, it shouldn’t change theFed’s stance and two rate cuts by the end of the year will continue to remainthe baseline.

NasdaqTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that the Nasdaq has been stuck in a big range for almost three months now.The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakouton either side as that will likely increase the momentum and give us the nextimpulse.

Nasdaq TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee more clearly the rangebound price action between the 21000 support and the 22115 resistance. The sellers will likelystep in again around the resistance to position for a drop back into thesupport, while the buyers will look for a break higher to extend the rally intothe 22426 level next.

Nasdaq TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we cansee that we have a nice support zone around the 21680 level where we can alsofind the upward trendline for confluence. If we get a pullback into thesupport, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below thetrendline to position for the break above the resistance. The sellers, on theother hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearishbets into the 21000 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, whiletomorrow we conclude the week with the US NFP report.