In 2023, all three major U.S. stock indexes performed strongly and achieved gains。Among them, the technology-based Nasdaq index led the way, up 43% for the year, the S & P 500 rose a total of 24%, while the Dow rose 14%。

Since the beginning of the year, U.S. stocks as a whole have continued the upward trend of last year.。As a result, many investors are betting that U.S. stocks will continue to rise this year.。But at the same time, there is no shortage of investors and analysts in the market who are bearish on U.S. stocks。Among them, Jeremy Grantham (Jeremy Grantham), co-founder and chief investment strategist at asset manager GMO, is one of the representatives of bearish U.S. stocks.。

Recently, Grant warned in an interview that U.S. stock prices are now ridiculously high and are likely to be in trouble。He believes that the concept of artificial intelligence, which is now being frenzied by the market, is a "bubble destined to burst."。He even warned that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a small recession this year.。

In interview, Grant advises investors to steer clear of U.S. stocks。He said: "Their prices are ridiculously higher than anywhere else in the world.。"The stock market is going to have a tough year."。"

S. companies have historically high profit margins relative to foreign companies, which creates a "double jeopardy" situation for stocks in which both profits and price-to-earnings ratios could fall from the highs, according to Grant。

Grant's bearish outlook on U.S. stocks began in 2022。At the time, he sounded the alarm about the multi-asset "super bubble" and predicted that the S & P 500 would fall 19% in a year, while the tech-dominated Nasdaq would take a bigger hit, possibly down about 33%.。

But the stock sell-off scenario predicted by Grantham did not occur, but was "rudely interrupted" by the AI frenzy in early 2023.。He believes AI has "changed the flight path of the entire stock market."。

As a veteran investor, Grant is actually very bullish on artificial intelligence, which he believes could be as revolutionary as the Internet in the coming decades.。"Artificial intelligence is not a scam," he said, "Bitcoin is basically a scam."。But he also predicted that the "incredible excitement" around AI now won't last long.。

In addition to the stock market, Grant made a pessimistic forecast for the U.S. economy.。He believes that despite the fourth quarter of the United States GDP growth of 3.3%, the unemployment rate and annualized inflation rate were below 4% in December, and interest rates are likely to be cut several times this year, but the inversion of the U.S. bond yield curve and the long-term decline in major economic indicators bode well for trouble ahead.。

"The economy is going to be weak.。"At least we're going to have a mild recession."。"

Grantham also pointed to the threat posed by conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East.。He warned that these clashes could create "a terrible geopolitical situation and bad things could happen."。The situation is particularly worrisome when assets are at historic highs, he added.。

Grantham says he is now focusing on long-term, undervalued negatives beyond bubbles。"There's a whole lot of negativity right now," he said in an interview.。

In the interview, Grantham repeatedly urged investors to be careful and advised investors to look for undervalued assets in emerging markets such as Japan, depressed sectors such as natural resources, and growth areas such as climate change solutions.。

It's worth emphasizing that Grant's nearly two-year forecast is not so accurate。For example, he said in April last year that in a worst-case scenario, the S & P 500 could fall by half to around 2,000, but then the index soared to a new all-time high of more than 4,900.。