Pres. Trump said yesterday that Canada is "stepped it up a lot". That and some concessions on tariffs has helped the CAD leading to a lower USDCAD in the process.

Technically, the USDCAD is coming under renewed pressure after breaking below the key support range between 1.4268 and 1.4471—a zone that had confined most of the price action going back to mid-December. This breakdown signals growing bearish momentum and shifts the focus to the next key support zones. The question now is: can sellers keep the pressure on?

Adding to the bearish technical bias, the pair has also dipped below the 38.2% retracement of the rally from the September 2024 low, which comes in at 1.42697. Price is also flirting with the 100-day moving average at 1.4255, currently trading above and below the level, suggesting an ongoing battle for directional control. A firm break below both levels would confirm the shift in bias toward the downside.

That said, some dip buyers have stepped in near the March 6 low at 1.42386, offering temporary support. If that level gives way, sellers may quickly target the February lows between 1.4149 and 1.4166, followed by the 50.0% retracement and swing area near 1.4108.

On the topside, the broken range support now turns into resistance. Any rebound would need to contend with the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.4319 and the 100-bar MA at 1.4357 to shift the tone back toward neutral.

📌 Key levels to watch
Resistance:

• 1.4268–1.4471 (broken range)

• 1.4319 (200-bar MA, 4H)

• 1.4357 (100-bar MA, 4H)

Support:

• 1.42386 (March 6 low)

• 1.4149–1.4166 (Feb lows)

• 1.4108 (50.0% retracement of Sep 2024 move)

For now, sellers hold the short-term edge, but whether that momentum extends or stalls will depend on how price reacts at the 1.4230 support area.