1. Creating new opportunities: The game space between financial resilience and valuation mismatch

1. Countercyclical profitability verification

In 2024, Ningde Times 'revenue fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 362 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15% against the trend to 50.7 billion yuan.Behind this "volume reduction and profit increase" is the cost dividend brought by the downward trend in lithium carbonate prices (lithium prices will drop from 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022 to 180,000 yuan/ton in 2024), combined with the 36.5% market share of the energy storage business. Increase in gross profit.At present, the dynamic P/E ratio of A shares in Ningde era is only 21.95 times, which is significantly lower than the industry average, and the issuance of H shares may be discounted at 20%.InvalidParameterValue

2. Cash flow pressure and capital operation needs

Although the book capital is about 98 billion yuan, the overseas investment demand is as high as tens of billions of euros (the Hungarian factory has a single-term investment of 7.3 billion euros).The US$5 billion raised by Hong Kong stocks will relieve the pressure on the asset-liability ratio of 65%, and provide ammunition for technology research and development-the commercialization of solid-state batteries requires investment of more than 20 billion yuan, and R & D expenses will account for 5.1% of revenue in 2024.

2. Ningde era: transition from production capacity output to technical standard setter

1. Global breakthrough in the technology licensing model

Different from the traditional "asset-heavy going to sea", Ningde Times innovatively launched the RS (License & Royalty Service) technology licensing model to provide patent licenses to Ford, Tesla and other car companies and charge a technology premium.While circumventing the restrictions of the U.S. IRA Act, this model shifts the competitive dimension from production capacity scale to technical standard control-in 2024, the R & D investment in Ningde era will reach 18.6 billion yuan, the solid-state battery pilot line will be implemented, and mass production of CTC 2.0 technology is imminent. Build the right to speak in the next generation of battery technology.InvalidParameterValue

2. Deep game of localization layout in Europe

The Ningde Times Hungarian factory (100GWh) is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2025, while the Spanish factory jointly invested with Stellantis is targeting the southern European market gap.This layout is not only a predictive response to the EU carbon tariff (CBAM)(Ningde domestic factory carbon emissions of about 60kg CO2/kWh, need to be reduced to 30kg CO2/kWh by 2030), but also through the "4-hour supply chain circle" to reconstruct the European power battery industry pattern.InvalidParameterValue

3. New strategy: How to effectively improve the success rate of new competition?

New leverage policy: The Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission's new regulations require 10% of the principal for financing, and 10 times leverage is the upper limit.This leads to:

l Small amounts of funds (≤ HK$10,000): You must rely on "first-hand financing" brokerages (such as Wealth Broker, etc.) to enter the market at a low threshold, but you need to be alert to dark liquidity risks;

l Large amounts of funds (≥ 60,000 Hong Kong dollars): The optimal solution is to make B by households. By using the window where the Hong Kong dollar interest rate is as low as 3%-4%, three B households can increase the winning rate by more than three times.InvalidParameterValue

4. Risk warning: Three major risks cannot be ignored

1. The lethality of intergenerational change in technology

Toyota plans to mass-produce all-solid-state batteries (energy density 500Wh/kg) in 2027, while the mass production of semi-solid-state batteries in the Ningde era will still take 2 years.If the iteration of the technical route exceeds expectations, the existing value model will face re-evaluation.InvalidParameterValue

2. A compound attack on geopolitics

The U.S. IRA bill requires the ban on batteries of "foreign entities of concern" after 2024. The Ningde era plan to build a factory in Mexico has been questioned by U.S. lawmakers, and the carbon footprint traceability of the EU's "New Battery Law" may increase the cost by US$4 -6/kWh.InvalidParameterValue

3. Customer backlash and overcapacity

The climbing production capacity of Tesla 4680 batteries and the increase in BYD's external supply ratio may cause the capacity utilization rate in the Ningde era to drop from 81% to below 70%.Coupled with the fact that the planned global power battery production capacity has reached twice the demand, the price war may reduce unit profits by another 20%.InvalidParameterValue

5. Outlook for the future: Focus on the evolution of the energy network

Ningde Times is evolving from a single battery supplier to a "vehicle + storage + recycling" energy network:

l Car end: EVOGO's power replacement business has penetrated the taxi market, and 20 cities have been deployed in 2024;

l Storage: Liquid-cooled CCS system won the bid for the Saudi Red Sea New City project, with a gross profit margin of 28% for energy storage;

l Recycling end: Bunp Cycle has a global market share of 32%, and the nickel and cobalt metal recovery rate exceeds 99%.InvalidParameterValue

The listing of Hong Kong stocks is not only a blood supplement for capital, but also a key springboard for building global energy standards.If we can make breakthroughs in solid-state battery research and development (60% of shipments in 2025) and ESG compliance (ecological dispute of Indonesia nickel mine project to be solved), the trillion market value is only a new starting point.InvalidParameterValue

6. How to create new ones?

Investors need to clarify two issues when purchasing new shares:

(1) How to purchase (cash only or leveraged financing)

(2) Purchase quantity (issue price x lot number, related to whether you are assigned to Group A or Group B).

Application method

1) Cash subscription: Only use account cash to make subscription.

2) Financing subscription: Investors can purchase through financing services provided by securities firms and need to pay financing interest.Wealth Broker currently provides up to 10 times new leverage.

"One hand" is the minimum subscription unit, and the number of shares per lot is determined by the issuing company, which may be 100 shares, 500 shares, or 1000 shares.

issue price

The issue price of Hong Kong stocks and new shares is a range, not a set fixed value.At the beginning of the subscription, the issuing company will set the price of each subscription lot, and the final issuance price will be determined by the listed company and the underwriter based on market conditions after the subscription deadline.

operational flow

Open the Wealth Broker App and log in using your account information:

Exclusive discount account opening link: p.wealthbr.com/0qBSODM? lan=zh

• Enter the new share subscription page: In the navigation bar at the bottom of the App, click [Market], and then select [New Share Subscription].
• Select new shares: Browse the list of new shares currently available for subscription, click the new shares you are interested in, and enter the details page.
• Submit an application: Wealth Broker provides cash subscription and financing subscription methods.Financing subscriptions can provide leverage of up to 10 times, depending on the new shares.
• Confirm subscription quantity: Enter the subscription number based on your funds.Please note that the number of shares per lot for each new issue may vary and needs to be selected based on specific circumstances.
• Submit the application: After confirming that there is no error, click [Confirm Subscription], and the system will prompt you to verify the information again and submit it after confirmation.

I wish everyone a smooth investment ~

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