FundamentalOverview

After a brief consolidationin the first part of the week, gold eventually broke out into a new all-timehigh and surged by more than 3% in just a day. The precious metal has been theonly game in town recently as the uncertainty and risk off flows haven’t evensupported bonds, which generally rise during such times.

But these are not normaltimes because the market is fearing stagflation, which hasn’t been seen fordecades. This is an environment where you have lower growth and higherinflation. Gold thrives during such times. The problem is that “long gold” isnow the most crowded trade, and such parabolic rallies can be wiped out fast ifconditions change.

In the bigger picture, goldremains in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall as the Fed isnot looking to hike anymore. The risks for the upside in the short term includeanother aggressive stock market selloff, a hawkish Fed or positive news on thetariffs side.

GoldTechnical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we cansee that after a brief consolidation, gold skyrocketed once again into newall-time highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have abetter risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for further upside. Thesellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below thetrendline and the 2957 level to extend the drop into the 2832 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on thistimeframe. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to keep pushing intonew highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the pullbackinto the 3195 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis– 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’snot much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce around thetrendline, while the sellers will look for a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UpcomingCatalysts

Today we get the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures. But as a reminder, the market is focused on tariff negotiations at themoment, so the data is not as market-moving as it used to be in the pastmonths. So, we will likely need at least a new cycle high in the Jobless Claimsdata to trigger a notable reaction.

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