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Goldman Sachs warning: house prices in four major U.S. cities are about to collapse

On Feb. 1, local time, the Fed opened its first rate hike of the year with 25 basis points, raising its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% -4.Between 75%。Since entering the current rate hike cycle in March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates by a total of 450 basis points。Soaring interest rates sent U.S. mortgage rates to the biggest annual increase in history in 2022, with Freddie Mac (Freddie Mac) data showing that the average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage as of February 2 was 6.09%, compared with 3 in the same period last year..55% vs. 71%, negatively impacting U.S. home prices。U.S. Home Prices Fall 6 in 2023.1% Goldman Sachs predicts that the decline in U.S. home prices in 2023 will continue throughout the year, wary of another collapse in some cities after the subprime mortgage crisis。In mid-January, Goldman Sachs warned investors in a report called "Getting Worse Before Getting Better" that the current housing market in the U.S. Southwest and Pacific Coast is overheating and that home prices are expected to fall by 6 percent in 2023..1% and a rebound next year。Goldman Sachs Forecast, Austin 2023 (-15.6%), San Francisco (-13.7%), Santiago (-13.4%), Phoenix (-12.9%), Denver (-11.4%), Seattle (-11.2%), Tampa (-11.2%) and Las Vegas (-11.1%) and other major markets will see double-digit percentage declines in house prices, which have already experienced a significant correction in the second half of 2022。Among them, Austin's house prices have fallen by 10% compared to 2022..4%。Four major cities should be more prepared for a sharp drop in home prices, including San Jose and San Diego in California, Austin in Texas and Phoenix in Arizona.。The reason is that the housing market "overheated" during the outbreak, making house price growth in these cities out of touch with fundamentals.。Goldman Sachs predicts that house prices in these four major cities could fall by more than 25 percent in 2023 compared to last year's peak, a decline comparable to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.。According to the Case-Shiller index, the subprime mortgage crisis has caused home prices across the United States to fall by about 27%, and this drop in home prices will also lead to an increase in mortgage defaults for local homebuyers。

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