On March 12, according to Jin Shi, Bill Dudley, former chairman of the New York Fed and current member of the Coinbase Global Advisory Committee, issued a document saying that the current market seems to believe that slowing growth will become the dominant factor. Although U.S. stocks fell sharply, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates continued to heat up, implying that investors believed that price increases triggered by tariffs would not constrain the Federal Reserve. Following this logic, the Fed will regard rising inflation as a temporary phenomenon and support the economy by cutting interest rates. However, this narrative has major loopholes in two ways. First, the economic slowdown may have less impact on labor market slack and downward pressure on wages than expected. Second, if tariffs push up inflation expectations, it will be difficult for the Fed to ignore the price pressure they cause. This time, the tariff increase has multiplied. Worse still, after years of failure to meet the target, this move may further delay the Fed's achievement of the 2% inflation target. The process. The triple blow of declining growth potential, rising prices and rising inflation expectations does not bode well for the market: slowing growth will suppress corporate profits and drag down U.S. stocks; the Federal Reserve's hesitation in cutting interest rates will hit the bond market; and increased uncertainty will put pressure on both. Dudley Dudley expects this unfavorable outlook to be reflected in the economic forecast released after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week: lowering output growth expectations and raising inflation expectations, but as employment growth slows in parallel with labor expansion, the path of the unemployment rate will change. Limited. The median forecast for two 25 basis point interest rate cuts in 2025 may remain unchanged.