On March 5, as the potential impact of a new round of U.S. tariff policies intertwined with the fragility of global economic recovery, financial markets were undergoing a complex restructuring of expectations.Traders 'bets on the Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate cuts have heated up significantly in the past two weeks, and the market has fully absorbed three expectations of 25 basis points to cut interest rates this year. This shift marks the first time since mid-December last year that easing expectations have exceeded the previous 40 basis point pricing level.Behind this adjustment is not only a reassessment of the resilience of the U.S. economy, but also a reflection of the profound disturbance of geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty on the path of monetary policy.

The shadow of trade friction has always been the sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of Fed policymakers.Although the U.S. Department of Commerce recently stated its call for stabilizing Sino-US economic and trade relations, the Trump administration's threat to restart tariffs has triggered a chain reaction.Deutsche Bank economist Matthew Luzzetti pointed out that if the new tariffs cause labor market data to weaken, the Federal Reserve may be forced to turn to easing, which forms a subtle rift with the bank's previous hawkish stance of "not cutting interest rates during the year."Historical experience shows that the "boomerang effect" of tariff policies cannot be ignored-when Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum in 2018, IMF Managing Director Lagarde warned that it might trigger a global growth stall. Under the current scenario, Mexico, Canada and other countries 'retaliatory tariff threats, as well as potential countermeasures from China's "precision strike" strategy, have further amplified the risks of supply chain disturbances and a rebound in inflation.InvalidParameterValue

The divergence between market expectations and policy reality is particularly prominent in this context.A February survey by Bank of America showed that 77% of fund managers expected the Fed to cut interest rates during the year, of which 46% bet twice, 27% once, and only 4% supported it three times.However, the interest rate futures market in early March showed more aggressive pricing: terminal interest rate expectations fell by 50 basis points, the probability of interest rate cuts in May exceeded 50%, and the annual easing rate rose to 80 basis points.This contradiction reflects traders 'anxiety about "data lag"-although the unexpected CPI data in January briefly suppressed interest rate cuts expectations, the cost transmission caused by tariffs may reshape the inflation trajectory in the coming months, and the recent "wait and see" statement by Fed officials has been interpreted by the market as a signal to reserve policy flexibility.InvalidParameterValue

The resilience of the technology industry may be a rare highlight on the economic landscape.At the Guangdong Province High-Quality Development Conference, Huang Yu, a technology executive, bluntly stated that the additional tariffs imposed by the United States have limited impact on high-tech products such as high-end chips, because their technical barriers and irreplaceability support pricing power.This phenomenon echoes Intel's recent capital story: Rumors of the sale of a majority stake in its programmable chip division Altera drove its share price up 40% in a single month, demonstrating the market's pursuit of a wave of technological autonomy.However, this structural differentiation is difficult to offset overall risks-stock price corrections of technology giants such as Meta and Netflix, as well as fluctuations in high-frequency data such as manufacturing PMI, all suggest vulnerability at the macro level.InvalidParameterValue

Policymakers are trying to find a balance between managing inflation and escorting growth.St. Louis Fed President Musalem recently emphasized economic downside risks and opened a theoretical window for interest rate cuts. However, the Fed's internal insistence on the "2% inflation target" still constitutes a constraint on short-term action.It is worth noting that the game between the market and the central bank has entered a new stage: traders no longer wait for stronger dovish signals, but instead deploy "expected discounts" based on tariff shocks in advance.This advanced pricing may amplify the volatility of asset prices-the yield on 2-year U.S. bonds fell to 3.89%, the lowest since October last year, reflecting the resonance of risk aversion and loose expectations.InvalidParameterValue

At the current juncture, the fate of the global economy depends largely on the wrestling of two major variables: one is the intensity and duration of the implementation of the U.S. tariff policy, and the other is whether the Federal Reserve can capture the real economic pulse amidst the data noise.If the escalation of trade conflicts causes manufacturing to return less than expected and push up terminal prices, the risk of stagflation will force the central bank to make a more difficult choice between "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation."Historical lessons clearly show that no country can survive the asymmetric impact caused by tariffs-the 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs caused the loss of more than 400,000 jobs in the United States. This lesson may inject a sense of reason into the current policy craze.InvalidParameterValue

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% in January. The central bank cut interest rates by a total of 100 basis points at its last three interest rate meetings last year.

Previously, the market generally believed that the first phase of the Federal Reserve's current interest rate cut cycle had ended.Some investors had predicted that policymakers would not cut interest rates again this year.