On February 20, Huawei held a data storage new year new product launch, officially released a new data lake solution, to help finance, government, operators, education and research and other industries to fully release the huge potential of data assets.。Huawei also released new all-flash storage products for the commercial and distribution markets to promote full-scenario flash inclusion.。At the same time, the release of storage "AI brain" - cloud intelligent management platform DME IQ, bringing a new intelligent operation and maintenance experience。

We've learned a little investment science knows that don't put your eggs in the same basket.。The significance of doing so is equivalent to adding some buffer to the stock in hand, spreading the risk away and not having a particularly large impact on the overall portfolio's returns。Of course, there are always some players in the market who want to put their eggs in the same basket, which is what we call "stud."。In general, this operation occurs only if the investor is particularly convinced that the stock in his hand is bound to rise。And according to a recent data released by Goldman Sachs, the concentration of U.S. investors in stocks has reached the highest level ever, which means that U.S. investors are highly overlapping stocks, holding similar stocks in their hands, which is a very dangerous behavior.。If these stocks go up okay, everyone can make money together, but if these stocks go down, Wall Street must be wailing again。So what stocks are American investors in Soha?？Overall, they invest in a number of ultra-large technology stocks, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, Nvidia, Uber and others。

To say that this year's U.S. stocks of small partners but properly ride a wave of roller coaster, the first half of the year with Nvidia and other technology stocks to eat a wave of meat, the second half of the year can only drink some clear soup, ups and downs is too exciting。Now, the situation could reverse again, as history has shown that November was the best month ever for U.S. stocks, with the highest average return in a year since 1950.。There are two mainstream explanations for why U.S. stocks will rise in November: first, after the first three months of stock selling, the stocks in the hands of U.S. stock shorts have bottomed out and there are no more chips to smash, which is a big plus for the stock market.。Second, as you may not know, there is a strange rule in the U.S. fund industry, that is, the more you earn from stock trading, you need to pay more tax, and the more you lose, you can offset the tax, which is called the annual tax loss harvest, the annual deadline is October 31.。That is, the more U.S. mutual funds lose by the end of October each year, the less money-making taxes they will have to pay this year。So after October, another loss will not be tax-deductible, so it seems that we have reason to expect a wave of U.S. stocks in November.？

The stock god also can't hold on？On November 4, the stock god Buffett's fund Berkshire Hathaway announced the third quarter results, data show that Buffett in the third quarter of the operation suffered a rollover, should have been the most stable equity investment business in the third quarter huge loss of 24.1 billion U.S. dollars, directly implicating the company's net profit burst loss of more than 10 billion U.S. dollars。But we Buffett old man can not panic, but see more of the big scene of him, immediately came out to say that in fact, is to make a big profit! First of all, Buffett believes that the focus of investors is wrong, investors are always staring at Berkshire's stock investment business, but Buffett believes that their best performance now is actually the insurance business, net profit doubled from the last quarter, but the market did not see, and then look at the investment, Buffett admitted that。Lao Ba believes that if these unwarranted losses are removed, Berkshire's net profit for the quarter will rise sharply to $10.8 billion.。In a word, from the explosion of 10 billion to the explosion of 10 billion, must not be disobedient, Buffett is really a mathematical genius。Do you have a position in Buffett's stock?？

On November 1, local time, the Federal Reserve took the lead in announcing that interest rates would remain unchanged。To be honest, the Fed made this decision is not surprising, one is that inflation in the United States has been much lower than a year ago, the effect of raising interest rates has been shown, and the other is that the Fed's interest rates are now at a high level for more than 20 years, and then add to the U.S. economy may be overwhelmed。The dust has settled on the US side, and now it's up to the UK side to follow, if two consecutive developed country central banks have announced a suspension of interest rate hikes, it is estimated that the global interest rate hike cycle is not far from the end.。But the British side of the situation and the United States is not the same, the United States side, interest rate hikes to raise interest rates, the U.S. economy has hardly been much affected this year, employment is still strong, wages are rising, and even in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks also out of a wave of bull market。But the British side is different, the Bank of England in this round of radical interest rate hikes have tortured the British economy out of breath, manufacturing, services, both wings of the decline in employment, the number of corporate bankruptcies increased significantly, if in this case the Bank of England still dare to continue to raise interest rates, there are only two possibilities, first, the Bank of England is too brave, and inflation blood to fight to the end, second, the Bank of England is

Trump has stepped down from the position of President of the United States, but economic advisers under the Trump administration are still grabbing the show。Recently, the former White House economic adviser Steve Moore made a surprising statement in an interview, saying that the electric car market will be the next big failure in American history! At first glance, this statement is really scary, after all, the world's EV development is now in full swing, whether it is new automakers or traditional automakers, are vigorously developing electric vehicles, how can this be a big failure?？In the face of doubt, Steve Moore's reasons are also simple and crude, saying that the auto industry is updating so fast that it's likely that automakers are trying so hard to build a blockbuster that no one wants it when it comes out.。He took Ford's classic Edsel as an example, once, Ford was betting that the Edsel would sell well without doing much market research, spending ten years building 500,000 Edsel in one go, and finally building a car that no one wanted at all, a huge loss of 3..500 million dollars。Moore also means that if today's electric cars continue to be built like this, they will one day collapse like Ford.。However, Moore is quite optimistic about hybrid cars. He thinks that a car can use both gasoline and batteries, which is a clever move.。

Recently, the economic situation in India has changed again, with the central government releasing a message suddenly calling for tighter economic controls and banning companies from sensitive countries from participating in local economic projects in India, and saying the decision has been communicated to the state government。As you may not know, this state government is probably equivalent to a province of China in the administrative division of India, and as soon as this notice was issued, the central government of India kept asking the state government to implement it, which is equivalent to turning the gun from the central to the local to these so-called sensitive countries, which seems to be serious.。Among these sensitive countries, there is one name that I believe will come as no surprise to anyone, and that is Pakistan.。The conflict between India and Pakistan has been around for a long time, and for a variety of intricate reasons, neither one is dealing with the other, and both are often fired on a range of economic, political and other issues.。Not once or twice has India suddenly announced a tightening of economic controls, and a similar situation occurred in July 2020, when, without naming any particular country, the Indian government restricted the participation of companies from countries bordering India in government procurement projects in that country on national security grounds.。

On November 1, the Federal Reserve is about to announce a new interest rate decision, whether to raise interest rates or not, this soul torture estimates that no one can really answer up。Although according to market forecasts, the possibility of the Fed not raising interest rates on November 1 has been as high as 97%, but, after all, it is a market forecast, you know, until the last minute, no one dares to pack a ticket。Another way to find out the Fed's next policy action is to find out from the speeches of Fed officials, who in many cases, because of their special status, are not convenient to talk too much in public, but they also have times when they spill the beans, so let's take a look at the Fed's top leader, Powell's latest statement.。There is no doubt that Powell's advocate is to raise interest rates, and his main concern is that the U.S. labor market is hot.。Some people wonder, isn't it a good thing that the labor market is hot and everyone lives and works in peace and contentment?。Powell doesn't think so, as the governor of the U.S. central bank, he doesn't care if your people live in peace or not, in his eyes, there is only one goal, and that is to keep inflation down.。As long as inflation rises, then I'm going to do everything I can to get it going, and no one can stop me.。The best way to keep inflation down is to raise interest rates, because raising interest rates is like a tranquilizer, and no matter how noisy you are, if I take this shot, you'll lose more than half of your vitality.。

Recently, the United States has released a new key indicator - Bank of America bull and bear index reading.。The latest reading of this indicator is 1.9, on behalf of the market has been in an "extremely bearish" state。In general, when the reading falls below 2.At 0, it means that the risk asset is already in an "oversold" state, and the rebound is bright ahead.。Historically, when this signal is triggered, global markets are likely to come out of a wave in the next three months, with a median upside of 5.4%, the upside for global stocks is 7.6%, while the upside for investment-grade bonds can reach a staggering 9.1%。This bull-bear index reading, compiled by Bank of America, combines a number of factors in the market to determine the overall emotional state of the U.S. stock market, including stock valuations, capital flows, and some popular technical indicators, and is fairly comprehensive.。The data plunge is due to the fact that equity markets have seen massive outflows for the second week in a row, with $4.6 billion outflows from developed markets and $600 million outflows from emerging markets.。The outflow of funds from the stock market represents more and more investors leaving the market, and the stock market is experiencing a wave of selling。As for the timing of the stock market rally, Bank of America's team believes the opportunity for a tactical rally will come at the end of the year.。In addition to the current overly pessimistic stock market, the team gave three reasons for the "oversold" of stocks, emerging market debt risk, high bond yields, and outflows from global equity funds.。The team said that at present, three-quarters of the "trading rules" have given a reverse buy signal.。

I thought the epidemic was over and the bitter days of the big American banks could come to an end, but I didn't think the nightmare of these big banks was just beginning.。Although the epidemic is over and the U.S. consumption and investment and labor markets are slowly recovering, the Fed's high interest rate policy is still taking off, strangling the U.S. economy, with U.S. banks bearing the brunt。Recently, according to a U.S. banking filing, the five largest U.S. banks, in addition to JPMorgan Chase, have cut a total of 20,000 jobs since this year, and the road to layoffs is likely to continue.。There are two reasons for these big bank layoffs, the first is the high interest rate policy in the United States that we just mentioned.。Don't underestimate the impact of high interest rates on banks, high interest rates will seriously impact the bank's lending business, raising lending rates, so that high interest rates on loans will scare off a large number of potential loan customers.。Loan interest income is an important source of bank income, if the income of this sector is greatly reduced, it is almost a disaster for banks.。The second reason is estimated that no one thought of another reason for the layoffs of major banks this year is that the employees of these banks have not changed jobs this year, resulting in the number of employees of these banks seriously exceeded expectations.。You know, job hopping is a common occurrence in Wall Street investment banks, and it's common to move to a better position after a few months in an investment bank, and very few people will work in a position for more than two years.。However, these employees seem to have agreed this year, that is, a radish a pit, to stay in their own station does not go.。The reason is still related to high interest rates, the financial situation is not good, Wall Street people are not willing to risk jumping to the next position, in case I am not as good as how to do？

As we all know, interest rate hikes are the biggest killer of bull markets。In general, a central bank rate hike will lead to a reduction in liquidity in the market, which will have a dampening effect on the overall economy and thus depress the stock market。Now, this round of interest rate hikes in the United States has reached its peak, the impact on the economy is gradually showing, although at the beginning of the year out of a wave of bull market, but the recent performance of U.S. stocks is not very bright。In this case, there are already institutions that are starting to collect rice and even start shorting some areas。According to Goldman Sachs' latest report, as of October 13, hedge funds began selling shares of all types of food, beverage and tobacco companies at the fastest pace in 11 weeks, and it's not over yet, the report also said that these hedge funds have reached their highest level in three months on must-spend character short bets and one of their highest levels in nearly five years.。Typically, hedge funds are already exposed to significant risk by launching a short trade, let alone another sell trade。If consumer goods have to go down in the future, hedge funds will get amplified gains, but if the sector goes up in the future, these hedge funds will also get amplified losses.。So, this all-out bet that the consumer goods industry must go down is okay to play well, and if you don't play well is to push yourself to the fire pit So why are these hedge funds so sure that consumer goods will go down?？The reason is simple, because these stocks typically have higher payout ratios than U.S. Treasury yields, and many investors buy these consumer goods to eat dividends。But with the recent surge in yields on government bonds, the stock payout ratios for these consumer goods are no longer attractive。

Recently, JPMorgan CEO Jimmy Dimon commented in Xiaomo's third-quarter earnings report that due to the uncertainty of the macro environment, the current may be the world's "most dangerous moment in decades."。Dimon said that while U.S. consumers and businesses are currently "generally" healthy, consumers are depleting their cash savings, which means that the purchasing power of U.S. consumers may decline.。At the same time, Dimon argues that the current U.S. labor market continues to be hot, government debt levels are extremely high, and fiscal deficits are at peacetime highs, all of which increase the risk of persistently high inflation and rising interest rates。In an effort to combat stubborn inflation, the U.S. benchmark interest rate is now at its highest point in 20 years, and many U.S. economic indicators have begun to show signs of slowing.。Many economists believe that if interest rates continue to rise, the risk of a hard landing for the U.S. economy will greatly increase.。So if the economy is really in recession, how should ordinary people invest?？In a word, the greater the risk of adopting a diversified investment strategy, the more you should avoid putting your eggs in the same basket.。In terms of equity targets, consider investing in defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare and consumer goods, which are usually relatively stable and may perform well even in a recession。In terms of bond investments, investors can consider some relatively stable bond investments, such as government bonds or investment-grade corporate bonds.。Such bonds are often considered safer assets and can provide certain income and capital preservation characteristics.。Finally, in terms of regular savings, you have to buy a certain number of fixed deposit products on a regular basis, no matter how volatile the market is.。This will help diversify the impact of market volatility while allowing you to buy more assets when the market is low。

As we all know, in order to curb high inflation, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates like crazy for nearly a year and a half, and interest rates are now at their highest level in 22 years.。Due to the linkage of the financial world, the upward movement of benchmark interest rates has brought a series of chain reactions such as the Treasury market and the real estate market, 10-year U.S. bond yields have soared to historical highs, incidentally, even the U.S. 30-year mortgage rates are slowly rising。Interest rates are the same everywhere, when interest rates are low, everyone wants to get a few houses to fry, when interest rates are high, no one wants to carry a heavy mortgage to do the pick-up man.。In an environment of high interest rates, real estate companies can't sell their houses, banks can't lend them out, and no one has a source of money to make.。So, the U.S. real estate and banking industries recently jointly wrote to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, hoping that the lovely Fed chairman would stop raising interest rates!In the letter, the two industries gave the Fed two demands: first, to stop raising interest rates, which we all understand.。Second, stop selling your mortgage securities on your own initiative, and what does that mean?？In fact, this so-called mortgage security is a group of mortgages bundled together to form a portfolio that is sold on the open market, or MBS for short.。Since MBS is backed by a large string of home mortgages, MBS is also often seen as a relatively high-quality asset, and the Fed has a large amount of MBS in its hands.。When the Fed wants to tighten monetary policy, the Fed sells MBS in the market and returns some of its money to cool the economy。That's why the two industries are proposing in the letter that they want the Fed to stop selling MBS, which would be a major blow to both the U.S. financial and real estate markets.。

Recently, large-scale clashes broke out between Israel and Palestinian armed groups。On 7 October, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) suddenly fired thousands of rockets at Israel, while Israel responded by launching several rounds of air strikes in Gaza, and the two sides are now at loggerheads.。After the sudden escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian situation, the major stock markets in the Middle East all saw a sharp fall on October 8.。The Israeli stock market was directly hit hard, with the Israeli blue-chip TA-35 index plunging nearly 6 percent on the day..5%, the benchmark TA-125 index fell nearly 6.7%, the trading floor is wailing。In addition, the stock markets of major Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt have not been spared, which can be described as a fire at the gates of the city.。As with previous geopolitical events, the attractiveness of global safe-haven assets has been boosted by a wave since the start of the conflict.。Among them, the most sought after assets by analysts are gold and the dollar, spot gold jumped nearly 1% at the opening on October 9, the dollar index also stopped the decline, against the market upward。So why do people go to war and think about buying gold?？There are two reasons。First, when a risk event comes, the volatility of the stock market will intensify, the probability of people losing assets in their hands will be amplified, and they may lose money on anything they buy.。Second, wars often lead to massive increases in state spending, causing sharp inflation, so that the currency in the hands of the people will be drastically devalued, the money in their hands is worthless and they can't afford anything.。But gold is different, as a hard currency, gold is usually considered an asset independent of the currency of a particular country, except for the United States, the value of gold is not much affected by the policies of other countries.。

International oil prices have recently risen rapidly and are now hovering around $90, with the sword pointing to $100.。On the news, this rally in oil prices was mainly affected by the Russian ban on gasoline and diesel exports, which in turn pushed oil prices up。On September 21, in order to stabilize domestic diesel prices, Russia suddenly announced that it had decided to temporarily ban the export of gasoline and diesel to all countries except Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan.。Since Russia is the world's largest seaborne exporter of diesel fuels, the move has undoubtedly stuck the necks of major importing countries。Supply reduction, demand is not met, the market has been optimistic that oil prices continue to rise, the well-known investment bank Xiaomo directly shouted, cloth oil will rise to $150 in the future。However, excessive enthusiasm is gradually translating into market concerns, and the upward path for oil prices will never be smooth.。Citi took the lead in pointing out that while short-term crude oil may continue to rise to $100 in the face of export restrictions, once oil prices exceed $90, rising oil prices will stimulate suppliers to put in more energy supplies, thus quickly covering demand in the short term, causing the crude oil rally to stop abruptly.。Even a temporary increase in prices could lead to a further fall in oil prices next year.。UBS's view and Citi is not bad, UBS said that although oil prices in the short term can break the $100 mark, but in the next 12 months will be difficult to sustain more than $100, because high oil prices will weaken demand growth next year。Indeed, if oil prices do rise to unattainable levels, the corresponding demand in the market will gradually decrease, no one will pay for high oil prices, no matter how strong the fundamentals can not support it.。UBS believes that in the coming months, the price of Brent crude oil will remain around the current level, that is, in the range of $90 to $100。

At present, the United States auto workers strike intensified, about 12,700 workers held a joint strike。Since the auto industry is the largest manufacturing sector in the United States, the strike was costly, and according to experts, the cumulative cost of the first ten days of strikes alone could exceed $5 billion.。For this negative event for the car company, U.S. capital has smelled the smell of money and has entered the market ready to short。As a result, the shares of the three car companies whose workers are united in the strike: Ford, GM and Stellantis, are undoubtedly the first to be targeted by the bears.。Among them, Ford became the most shorted stock among the three largest U.S. automakers, with a net short position of 18.$8.7 billion, third on the total short list。In second place was Rivian Automotive, with a net short of 20..$9.7 billion, just above Ford。At the top of the shorting list is Tesla, the number one star stock in the U.S. auto industry, with 217.$9.8 billion net short entry, want to short Tesla's stock, more than ten times the number two。Why are the three major automakers on strike, but the automakers are running to short Tesla?？There are two reasons, first, Tesla's stock is expensive enough。In general, if the more expensive the target is shorted, the more likely it is that the share price is overvalued, and when a short-seller makes a capital attack, it is likely to attract more investors to follow suit, causing the share price to fall.。Second, Tesla's stock is liquid.。Short and long are different, short sellers need to intervene in the market by borrowing the target at the entry stage, and if the target that needs to be borrowed is liquid, the interest rate on borrowing is also lower.。As one of the more active trading varieties, Tesla clearly meets this requirement.。

New York University professor Roubini, who has always been known for his pessimistic comments, has come out to speak out again, and this time, he has warned the market that he will make a big move to short U.S. stocks。Roubini gave a number of reasons for the decline in U.S. stocks, but the most central one was "inflation."。Roubini estimates that high oil prices will raise inflation levels for some time。If inflation is too high, the Fed and other central banks will have to continue raising interest rates, hitting the market.。Roubini says U.S. stocks will fall another 10% during the year under the central bank's blow。In addition, Roubini also cited a number of risks that could lead to a downturn in the U.S. economy, including lagging monetary policy and credit risk, and said these risks could hit the U.S. economy as it recovers and drag down U.S. stocks.。Unlike in the past, Roubini's prediction does not seem to have made any waves in the market because the accuracy of the Doomsday Doctor's prediction has been compromised in the recent past.。In July last year, Roubini had confidently predicted that it would be difficult for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing, but the situation is clearly much better than he expected, the U.S. economy is not as he expected to be hit by the harsh inflation management, the S & P 500 index has risen more than 16% this year。Faced with this miscalculation, the Doomsday Doctor was slow to admit his mistake。He said that although the United States does not appear to have a real hard landing, but there may still be a so-called "bump landing."。The so-called "bumpy landing" refers to a brief and slight recession in the United States.。Anyway, it's impossible to admit your mistake, but from a "hard landing" to a "bumpy landing," this wave of shifting is for Roubini to play with.。

Anyone who plays with U.S. stocks knows that U.S. stocks have a mysterious "September curse."。The curse refers to the fact that in September, U.S. stocks usually underperform。In addition, some of the biggest disasters in U.S. economic history have largely occurred in September, including the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2007.。Historical statistics, since 1928, the average decline of the S & P 500 in September was 1.1%, is the only average decline of more than 0.13% of the month。What is the reason for the emergence of the magic spell in September?？No one ever made it clear。There's a saying that every September, U.S. short sellers get in and launch capital attacks on higher-valued stocks, but that doesn't stand up to scrutiny either。Of course, U.S. stocks don't fall every September, and historically U.S. stocks have performed well in September。In the three years 2017-2019, the S & P 500 recorded gains in September.。Looking at this year, the September spell for U.S. stocks seems to be manifesting itself, and so far, the S & P 500 has fallen about 0 percent since September..5%。However, the market does not seem to be worried about the event, because after a series of weak data, the market has been convinced that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates this month, which is undoubtedly good news for the market, because the suspension of interest rate hikes can ensure that the market has more liquidity, the greater the probability of hot money flowing into the U.S. stock market.。When market sentiment is pushed up, U.S. stocks are also likely to see a wave of gains。On the other hand, the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and the resilience of the U.S. economy is also supporting the U.S. stock market to some extent.。Last spring, with the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, many economists believed that the U.S. economy would gradually fall into recession.。But this year, bets on a U.S. recession have fallen significantly, which is another positive for U.S. stocks in September。

Recently, Marko Kolanovic, chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase, a well-known investment bank, once again predicted the future of U.S. stocks, saying that U.S. stocks may continue to fall, one of the reasons is: weak consumption.。In a report, Kolanovic said that by his count, U.S. consumers have spent all of their excess savings during the epidemic, which at one point amounted to $2 trillion, but that this strong spending money has been squandered by Americans。In addition, there is a big thunder buried in the U.S. consumer market, which is that starting in October this year, U.S. student loans will need to be repaid。Due to the high cost of tuition at American universities, many families have to apply for student loans to help their children finish college。In 2020, about 68 percent of undergraduate students applied for federal student aid, according to the Office of Federal Student Aid, which includes federal loans, grants and work-study programs.。The loan has to some extent increased the economic pressure on American families and limited their desire to spend, but under certain conditions, the U.S. government can suspend the repayment of student loans and "untie" American families, which usually occurs in financial difficulties, emergencies or other special circumstances.。For example, U.S. President Biden first announced his student loan forgiveness program in August 2022, under which the U.S. government would forgive $400 billion in federal student debt and help about 20 million Americans.。For the consumer market, the program's effect was almost immediate, with U.S. consumer spending increasing by $113 billion over the next month, an increase of 0.6%, led by home and new car sales。However, if student loans need to be repaid again, this will undoubtedly siphon off some of the market's liquidity, which could then hit the economy.。

Recently, mortgage rates in the U.S. have hit a new high in more than 20 years, and the cost of borrowing for Americans is rising rapidly, according to a statement from Freddie Mac, the U.S. housing finance agency。According to data released by Freddie Mac, as of August 17, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the United States was 7.09%, the highest level since April 2002。Behind the steep rise in U.S. mortgage rates is the recent surge in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, and generally speaking, the two changes into a positive relationship, that is, the higher the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the higher the U.S. mortgage rates will follow.。The principle behind it is also very simple, because the United States as one of the most developed countries in the world, U.S. Treasury bonds are also considered to be the core safety assets, that is, the so-called "risk-free assets," on this basis, the yield of U.S. debt can be regarded as a basic cost of funds, the rest of the cost of funds need to be priced on this basis, including the U.S. mortgage interest rates, and because of this, the U.S. benchmarkGlobal Asset Anchor。Battered by high mortgage rates, the U.S. housing market has shown clear signs of cooling, and to add insult to injury, the U.S. has also experienced a shortage of listings。According to Black Knight Inc, the affordability of housing for the American people has been depressed to its lowest point since 1984 as recent climbing borrowing costs and severe inventory shortages have pushed up home prices。At the same time, these problems have gradually spread to the second-hand housing market in the United States, where recent sales of second-hand housing have fallen as a lack of listings, rising costs and concerns about the economy have hampered many potential buyers.。

Recently, the U.S. economy short-term frequent, first Buffett on U.S. stocks to a wave of "shore fire," in the second quarter of a large cash and buy short-term Treasury bonds, hoarding a large amount of cash, and then the "big short" prototype Bury to buy U.S. stock index put options。The market is concerned that after eating a wave of meat in the first half of this year, more and more Wall Street bigwigs will leave the market in the future。Among the many losers, Wermuth Asset Management's views are particularly radical。Not only are the U.S. stock and property markets at risk of collapse, the company said, but the U.S. economy is also likely to shift rapidly from inflation to deflation。Wermuth gives three reasons, first, the S & P 500 has risen 16% since the beginning of the year, while the earnings outlook for many companies is too weak to support their current share prices, and a price collapse may be inevitable, which Wermuth describes as "dangerously overvalued."。Well-known investment bank Morgan Stanley also said that if the collapse comes, U.S. stocks could fall as much as 16%。Second, the U.S. real estate industry seems calm, but it is in crisis, on the grounds that the industry has about 1..$5 trillion in debt coming due and it's going to be a massive debt tsunami。Moreover, interest rates in the U.S. are currently relatively high, and it's not easy for real estate developers to refinance, and with the huge amount of existing debt, the U.S. real estate market could be dragged straight into trouble.。According to Kai Investment Macro's estimates, if house prices do see a plunge, the decline could reach 40%。Third, there is another objective factor in the decline in U.S. inflation, which is that the economy is gradually slowing down。In the U.S., for example, over the past year, the Fed has raised policy rates rapidly and significantly reduced the size of its balance sheet to fight inflation.。In Wermuth's eyes, factors suggest that the U.S. may be about to experience a precipitous decline from inflation to deflation。

As a classic financial film, the movie "Big Short" depicts a vivid picture of the financial crisis for moviegoers.。Among them, the male owner's series of divine operations in the film also shows his deep insight into the financial market, enabling him to make a strong comeback before the storm.。In fact, the protagonist has a prototype in real life, he is the American hedge fund manager Michael Bury, he manages the fund called Scion Asset Management, the current market value is close to $2 billion.。Currently, according to the just-disclosed 13F report, the Wall Street legend has made another big move, and the direction is still - bearish。According to the report, in the second quarter of this year, Bury was valued at 7 in nominal terms..$3.9 billion bought put options on ETFs that track the Nasdaq 100, as well as a notional value of 8.$8.6 billion bought put options on the SPDR S & P 500 ETF。Put options refer to the right to give investors the right to sell securities at a fixed price in the future, as an example, if the NASDAQ 100 and the S & P 500 are oversold in the future, Bury still has the right to sell these assets at the price specified in the option contract, locking in his own losses, so the purchase of put options is usually considered to express a bearish or defensive view.。Not only that, Bury also liquidated two Chinese Internet giants in the second quarter, Jingdong and Alibaba.。Interestingly, these two stocks were still on Bury's mind last quarter, and at one point were heavily overweight, making them the top two heavyweights.。I didn't expect that within a few months, Bury would liquidate it in a shocking way.。It seems that the real-life big-short archetype, like the one in the movie, is radical in style and decisive in killing.。

Beginning in March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates a total of 11 times in an effort to curb high inflation, rapidly raising the benchmark interest rate to the current 5 in more than a year..25% -5.50% level, can be described as quite radical。It stands to reason that an increase in a country's benchmark interest rate will lead to less liquidity in the market, more difficult for financial institutions to access funds, and a slow cooling of the economy.。Looking at it this way, it's only natural that Americans' lives should be turned upside down during such an aggressive rate hike cycle, but according to a recent survey, it doesn't seem like their lives have been greatly affected.？The answer to this question has to do with how the interest rate on the loan is settled.。Generally speaking, there are two ways to settle the interest rate of loans, one is the fixed interest rate system, in this model, consumers can lock in the interest rate of their own loans, no matter how the external environment changes, the level of consumer debt is relatively fixed, almost unaffected;The other is a floating rate system, in which the level of consumer debt correlates to the level of macro interest rates because floating rate debt resets periodically as the benchmark rate rises。In other words, the main impact of the Fed's rate hike is on consumers who adopt a floating rate system, while the impact on fixed-rate loans is relatively limited。Because, from 2008 until last year, the Fed has kept policy rates at historically low levels, so the big smart people in this period have prioritized a fixed exchange rate system.。This allows them to lock in interest rates on consumer loans at low levels first, which can effectively reduce the impact of changes in the external environment。According to Moody's Deputy Chief Economist Cristian deRitis, most consumer debt among U.S. households is fixed-rate, with nearly 70 percent of them having mortgage rates below 4 percent.。

Recently, U.S. retail investors have been on the rise in U.S. stocks, speculating on the share prices of some companies that are almost heading for bankruptcy.。For example, the latest stock to be hyped by retail investors is called Tupperware Brands Corporation (Tupperware Brands Corporation).？Since April, the company's executives have been warning investors that it was on the verge of collapse.。At the end of June, the company was already severely insolvent and struggling to run。It's fair to say that institutional investors won't take a second look at a company like this with such a poor financial situation, but it's just that such a company is favored by retail investors.。Figures show retail investors have bought $15 million worth of Tupperware shares since July 21, when the near-bankrupt company was valued at just $40 million.。However, since the retail army bought it, the company's market capitalization has grown nearly sixfold to a staggering 2.$3.9 billion。Like Tupperware, by retail investors will be the so-called "junk stocks" into "potential stocks" there are many examples, these stocks soared behind the army of retail investors in the U.S. stock market rampage.。Statistics show that in July this year, the average amount of capital injected into the stock market by retail investors in U.S. stocks was as high as 12 per day..$700 million, close to historical record。Surprisingly, with such a large investment, the overall returns of these retail investors are pretty good, according to the investment firm Roundhill Investments built to track retail concept stocks ETF, the index has risen 60% so far this year, even higher than the benchmark S & P 500 index of about 18% over the same period, can only say that the market is round, everything is possible, in the market, institutions have the ability to make money, retail investors also have the ability to live。