The USDCAD は 1.39969 で 200 日移動平均を下回った during yesterday’s session — the first drop below that level since October 7. That break marked a major shift in bias and set the stage for continued downside momentum, which has extended into today’s trading.

The pair has also moved below the 2024 年 9 月の安値から 61.8% のリトレース, which comes in at 1.39465, and is trading beneath a key 1.3922 と 1.3930 の間のスイングエリア. These breaks confirm a technical shift in favor of sellers.

The next major target comes in at 1.3813 （ 赤い数字の円を参照 ）. Below that, a broader swing zone dating back further on the chart lies between 1.3747 と 1.37748 (not shown in the image above).

バイヤーに新たな自信を与えるもの ？

少なくとも、価格は必要になります ：

• Reclaim the 1.3930 スイングエリア

• Break back above the 1.39465 で 61.8% のリトレース

• Ultimately, push through the 200-1 日移動平均 1.39969

With the pair currently trading around 1.3874, buyers would need a move of at least 120 ピップアップ to begin shifting the technical picture (with a move back above the 200 day MA). Absent that, and despite a potential corrective rally, if the price cannot get above the MA level, the buyers are not winning/the sellers are still in play.

In short, this week’s break has 複数ヶ月の連結範囲をスナップしました, and with key levels broken along the way, the sellers remain firmly in control.