TradeCompass for January 20, 2025: Crude Oil Futures (CL) Analysis

Crude oil futures (CL) are currently trading at ¥77.14, with the following thresholds:

• 強気上方: ¥77.54 – Signaling upside momentum if crossed.
• 弱気以下: ¥76.97 – Indicating a bearish stage if breached.

これらの閾値が重要な理由

• 強気 $77.54 以上:

  • This price is above 今日の VWAP, the 値領域高い, 金曜日の POC, and 木曜日の値エリア低. Clearing this level suggests a strong bullish move supported by institutional and algorithmic interest.

• 弱気下 $76.97:

  • Below this level, the price drops under the 今日の低値領域, as well as the バリューエリア過去 3 取引日の安値. It also crosses below the 金曜日と木曜日の VWAP の 2 番目の低い標準偏差, signaling a deeper bearish stage.

本日の原油先物の強気目標

1. ¥77.75

   • Just below 金曜日の価値エリア高, offering a quick profit target.

2. ¥78.00

   • Positioned under 木曜日の VWAP, a critical technical level.

3. ¥78.49

   • Just below the semi-round number ¥78.50 and the 1 月 16 日のバリューエリア高値.

4. ¥78.68

   • Aligned with the 1 月 15 日から POC, marking significant institutional activity.

5. ¥79.34

   • Situated just below the 1 月 15 日高値エリア, providing an aspirational bullish target.

本日の原油先物の弱気目標

1. ¥76.73

   • Positioned above the 1 月 14 日の VWAP, a key bearish milestone.

2. ¥76.20

   • Just above the 1 月 14 日の POC, offering a critical support break.

3. ¥75.91

   • Above the 1 月 10 日のバリューエリア高値, marking a bearish continuation target.

4. ¥75.26

   • Near the 1 月 10 日の POC, offering another key bearish profit level.

5. ¥74.51

   • Located above the 1 月 10 日低値エリア, serving as a longer-term bearish target.

本日の原油先物取引のキーノート

1.ラウンドナンバーの管理

• Expect price action to fluctuate around round numbers like ¥77.00, as market makers often use these levels to target liquidity. Stops placed too tightly near round numbers can be vulnerable to being triggered prematurely.

2.部分的利益取扱い

• A core principle of the TradeCompass is to take 部分利益 at key levels. Locking in smaller gains over time statistically outperforms waiting for large moves that occur less frequently.

3.ストップ · ロス調整

• Once your first profit target is hit, ストップロスをエントリーポイントに移動します. This applies to both long and short positions, protecting your capital while allowing the trade to run further.

4.バランスのとれたアプローチ

• The simplicity and effectiveness of the TradeCompass lie in its neutrality. It starts as neither bullish nor bearish, adapting based on whether the price crosses above or below key thresholds. These levels are derived from technical maps used by institutional firms and trading algorithms, giving them greater significance in guiding price movements.

Summary for Crude Oil Futures Today, According to Our TradeCompass

• 強気上方: ¥77.54 – Targeting ¥77.75, ¥78.00, ¥78.49, ¥78.68, and ¥79.34.
• 弱気以下: ¥76.97 – Targeting ¥76.73, ¥76.20, ¥75.91, ¥75.26, and ¥74.51.
• 最初のターゲットを打った後にストップロスをブレークイーンに調整し、その過程で部分的な利益を取ります。

結論

Crude oil futures are at a pivotal point, with key thresholds marking the start of a bullish or bearish stage. Traders should use this 原油先物分析 as a guide to navigate today’s market, balancing risk and reward through partial profit-taking and dynamic trade management.

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