U.S. residential starts picked up significantly in August, balancing inventory levels with improving demand and also benefiting from lower borrowing costs.

The U.S. EIA released its weekly oil report, showing that crude oil inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels, and current inventory levels are 4% below the five-year average.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data for August could influence the Federal Reserve's decision, as strong consumer spending typically reduces the need for aggressive monetary easing.

According to the report, the NAHB Housing Market Index rose to 41 in September from 39 in August, higher than the 40 expected by analysts.

The August non-farm payrolls data confirmed the trend shown by the ADP employment data the previous day, but again fell short of market expectations.

Data showed that the annual growth rate of the PCE price index in July was 2.5%, slightly lower than market expectations; the monthly growth rate was 0.2%, in line with market expectations.

The S&P Case-Shiller Index hit an all-time high in June 2024. New York leads the pack with an annual gain of 9%. Since 1974, home price gains have outpaced inflation by 1,100%, with affordability trends varying across regions.

The report showed that consumers’ assessments of the current labor market situation continued to weaken.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts the revision will be around 360,000, while Goldman Sachs thinks it could be as high as 1 million.

Bauer speaks next week, August non-farm payrolls data becomes key to rate cut!

U.S. retail sales rose 1% to $709.7 billion in July, beating expectations. Strong consumer demand boosted economic confidence amid easing inflation.

The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell sharply, marking the biggest drop in a year and pointing to a recovery in the job market.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said he still believes there is a significant chance the U.S. faces a recession.

JPMorgan Chase raised the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession by the end of this year to 35% from 25%, while Goldman Sachs also raised the probability to 25%.

The San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank estimates that after adjusting for these effects, employment growth should be between 130,000 and 150,000, significantly higher than the unadjusted 114,000.

The specifics of the rate adjustment will depend on incoming economic data, but in any case it is important to avoid an excessive slowdown in the labor market into a recession.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee stated that the Fed will respond to signs of economic weakness and hinted that current interest rates might be too tight.

The pace of expansion in the US services sector rebounded in July from a four-year low in June, thanks to gains in the new orders index and the hiring index.

According to the ADP report, new jobs were added in July, at the lowest level in six months and below market expectations, and annual employee payrolls increased at the lowest level since July 2021, according to the report.

The U.S. Treasury market is expected to post its third consecutive monthly gain, reaching the longest duration of gains in three years.