2025年1月14日星期二，比特币价格（BTC）大幅上涨，价值增加了2，000多美元。然而，周一市场出现震荡，价格短暂跌至关键的9万美元心理水平以下的两个月低点。

在本文中，我回顾了引发暴跌的原因、比特币价格今天上涨的原因，以及如何解读50日指数移动平均线上方的看涨别针--潜在的强烈买入信号。

比特币价格为何今天上涨？

周二，比特币在币安上的交易价格突破97，000美元，创下一周来的最高值。该加密货币目前上涨2.7%，另类币紧随其后。过去24小时，以太坊（ETH）上涨4.9%，达到3，200美元，而市值第三大加密货币XRP上涨7%，达到2.56美元。

如下图所示，比特币价格仍处于自11月以来的盘整阶段，下限接近92，000美元，上限位于前期高点98，000美元。

然而，周一的情况并不那么乐观，比特币短暂跌至仅89，398美元，引起了散户投资者的严重恐慌和困惑。

衍生品市场的暂时恐慌也很明显：四天内，投资者从加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）撤资了16亿美元，这是近年来最长的抛售之一。

过去24小时内，多头和空头都出现了损失。市场上约有5亿美元的杠杆头寸被清算，多头头寸和空头头寸之间的分布几乎相等。比特币占该活动的20%以上，多头头寸清算了4400万美元，空头头寸清算了7200万美元。

分析师将比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场最近的下跌归因于两个主要因素：所谓的“特朗普贸易”和货币政策。

比特币为何暴跌？美联储政策和市场不确定性动摇BTC价格

加密货币市场的低迷主要是由美联储利率政策预期的转变推动的。强劲的经济指标导致投资者预计利率将持续更长时间。美国强劲的就业市场，新增非农就业人数为256，000人，失业率为4.1%，这对这一前景的影响尤其大。

根据CME的FedWatch工具，定于1月29日举行的下次会议上降息的可能性仅为2.7%。市场目前预计下半年下调至4.00-4.25%范围的可能性更大（约40%）。早些时候的预期是采取更积极的降息路径，预计这将提振加密货币和股票等风险资产。

此外，最初围绕特朗普支持加密货币立场的兴奋情绪已被更加谨慎的市场情绪所取代。尽管特朗普即将上任的总统任期承诺将美国打造成“世界加密货币之都”，但投资者现在关注的是眼前的经济现实，而不是未来的政策承诺。

加密货币的衰落并不是孤立发生的。国债市场的抛售在各种资产类别中产生了连锁反应，影响了加密货币和传统市场。这种更广泛的市场反应表明比特币与传统风险资产的相关性日益增强。

比特币会继续上涨吗？BTC价格预测和技术分析

The candlestick I want to highlight in the technical analysis of Bitcoin Bitcoin While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that While some may still be wondering what is Bitcoin, who created Bitcoin, or how does Bitcoin work, one thing is certain: Bitcoin has changed the world.No one can remain indifferent to this revolutionary, decentralized, digital asset nor to its blockchain technology.In fact, we’ve gone a long way ever since a Florida resident Laszlo Hanyecz made BTC’s first official commercial transaction with a real company by trading 10,000 Bitcoins for 2 pizzas at his local Papa John’s.One could now argue that Read this Term's price chart may seem modest and even barely noticeable. However, in my view, it carries significant strength and buying potential. This is a bullish pin bar (or doji candle) with an almost invisible body and a very long lower wick, indicating that bears were in control but had to concede to bulls by the session's close.

图表显示了什么？

• 看涨别针测试了50均线和两个关键支撑位：92，000美元和90，000美元。
• 三个水平均保持不变，第二天价格立即上涨。
• 这一强烈的看涨信号证实了盘整区间的下限，表明买家可能会积极捍卫绿色标记的支撑区。

虽然比特币仍处于盘整状态，但从纯粹的技术角度来看，这种反应表明，有可能升至103，000美元（2025年高点）并最终升至108，000美元（迄今为止的历史高点）。

比特币价格关键支撑和阻力位

支持	电阻
90，000美元-心理回合水平	100，000美元-心理回合水平
92，000美元-11月、12月和1月测试本地低点	103，000美元-2025年以来的高点
50 EMA -目前为94，482美元	108，000美元-当前ASH

突破当前历史新高是考虑对2025年及以后进行雄心勃勃预测的必要条件。其中一些预测确实非常大胆。

比特币价格预测：BTC会达到100万美元吗？

去年年底，我探讨了这个问题：“比特币会达到100万美元吗？”Bitwise Asset Management Alpha策略主管Jeff Park表示，如果美国政府采取比特币储备策略，这可能是可能的。然而，他目前只认为这种情况有10%的可能性。

Arthur Hayes, the Founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Cryptocurrency Exchange A cryptocurrency exchange is an online platform that supports the exchange of various currencies for a cryptocurrency or digital asset.Comparable to a generalized financial exchange, a crypto exchange’s core function is to permit and encourage the buying and selling of cryptos.This is accomplished by producing a stable trading environment suitable for traders nested through different locations around the world. Sometimes a crypto exchange may be referred to as a digital currency exchange (DCE) f A cryptocurrency exchange is an online platform that supports the exchange of various currencies for a cryptocurrency or digital asset.Comparable to a generalized financial exchange, a crypto exchange’s core function is to permit and encourage the buying and selling of cryptos.This is accomplished by producing a stable trading environment suitable for traders nested through different locations around the world. Sometimes a crypto exchange may be referred to as a digital currency exchange (DCE) f Read this Term BitMEX, has frequently mentioned such ambitious levels as $1 million. Last week, he appeared as a guest on Tom Bilyeu's show, where he discussed the current state of the cryptocurrency market during a nearly two-hour interview. Hayes suggested that Bitcoin is gradually heading toward seven-figure valuations and could potentially reach them within the next five years.