关键时刻

• 受美元下跌和地缘政治紧张局势缓解的推动，英镑/美元汇率已达到12月18日以来的最高水平。
• 美元的表现以及对加拿大和墨西哥的潜在关税是影响英镑/美元货币对的关键因素。
• 即将发布的美国GDP和首次申请失业救济数据不太可能对英镑/美元货币对产生重大影响。

英镑兑美元汇率大幅飙升，达到12月中旬以来的最高点1.2685，较今年最低水平反弹近5%。这一上升趋势主要归因于美元从年初以来的高点110美元跌至106美元，因为某些地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解，而另一些紧张局势有所加剧。值得注意的是，美国正在与俄罗斯讨论结束乌克兰冲突的可能性，以色列和哈马斯之间已经实现停火。这些事态发展导致避险情绪下降，导致美元贬值。

影响英镑/美元汇率的一个关键因素是美元的表现，美元的表现受到各种宏观风险的影响，包括美国可能对加拿大和墨西哥的进口商品征收关税。唐纳德·特朗普提出的此举可能会导致受影响国家采取报复措施，这可能会破坏旨在促进美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间贸易的USMCA协议。

然而，拟议的关税可能会导致贸易战，造成市场的不确定性和波动。投资者正在密切关注这一情况，他们正在权衡此举对全球经济的潜在影响。

In terms of economic data, the UK has a relatively quiet schedule, whereas the US is set to release its latest GDP and initial jobless claims data. Economists anticipate that the US economy expanded by 2.3% in the final quarter of last year. Although this data is significant, it is unlikely to have a substantial impact on the GBP/USD pair, as it is the second estimate and the market has already factored in the expected outcome. The initial estimate, released earlier, provided a general idea of the US economy’s performance, and the second estimate is not expected to deviate significantly from it. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain higher interest rates due to rising inflation, which may not be affected by the upcoming GDP report.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain higher interest rates is driven by concerns over rising inflation, which has been fueled by a strong labor market and increasing wages. The central bank aims to keep inflation in check by adjusting interest rates, and the latest data suggests that it may need to take a more hawkish stance to achieve this goal. The implications of this decision will be closely watched by investors, who will be looking for signs of how the Fed’s actions will impact the US economy and, in turn, the GBP/USD exchange rate.

从技术分析角度来看，本月英镑/美元汇率保持强劲上涨势头，超越50日移动平均线和一目云指标。