As the 16th BRICS summit approaches,the world is watching with anticipation. With the introduction of new membersand the ongoing development of a BRICS currency, this gathering could mark asignificant turning point in international finance. Will the summit unveil anew era of economic cooperation and bring about a new currency? Octa经纪人 provides the answers.

●金砖国家组织已从一个讨论论坛发展为全球事务中更积极的参与者。

●创建共同的金砖国家货币是即将在喀山举行的峰会的主要焦点。

●实施新的金砖国家货币带来了重大挑战，但也为成员国带来了潜在的好处。

●金砖国家货币的成功可能会对国际金融体系产生深远影响，有可能挑战美元的主导地位。

●黄金可能在新货币发展中发挥作用，金砖国家央行增加黄金购买就证明了这一点。

●虽然金砖四国货币的全面影响尚不确定，但其发展可能标志着全球经济格局的重大转变。

BRICS countries are due to meet fortheir 16^日 annual summit in Kazan, Russia, on 22-24 October. BRICS,a fast-growing intergovernmental organisation currently consisting of ninemember states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt,Ethiopia, and the United Aran Emirates), has been holding regular summits since2009. However, many past gatherings have been relatively low-key, as BRICS wasconsidered primarily as a platform for discussion and viewed mainly as a forumfor dialogue. Still, there have been notable exceptions, and the organisationhas been getting increasingly more vocal lately.

● In 2009, following the 1^StSummit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, the BRIC group (South Africa was not part ofthe organisation then) declared the need for a new world reserve currency.Although the official statement did not include any explicit intentions or anaction-plan, it was the first time the U.S. dollar dominance was challenged onsuch a high level.

● In 2014, at its 6^日 Summit heldin Fortaleza, Brazil, BRICS adopted the so-called Fortaleza Declaration andAction Plan. It laid out the organisation's plans for the future and focused onpolitical dialogue, economic cooperation and integration, and culturalexchange.

● The 14^日 Summit, presided byChina in 2022 and hosted virtually, aimed to strengthen cooperation among thefive member states. It was at this summit that Russia's president announcedthat the organisation was working to design a new reserve currency based on a basketof BRICS currencies.

● The 15^日 Summit, which tookplace in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 2023 was particularly notable as fivenew countries were invited to join the organisation (Argentina, Egypt,Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates). Although Argentina laterdeclined to accept the invitation, other countries officially became members ofBRICS on December 29, 2023 with Saudi Arabia joining later.

“很明显，金砖国家峰会正变得越来越值得关注，该组织不能再被视为一个空谈场所。今年，金砖国家会议可能会成为又一个转折点，特别是对于国际金融来说，” says Kar Yong Ang, a financial marketanalyst at Octa Broker.

事实上，喀山峰会可能会产生实质性和有意义的进展，并产生重大和深远的影响。

Specifically, the creation of acommon BRICS currency is expected to be included in the agenda. 'It[BRICS common currency]可以说是自1999年欧元推出以来国际金融中最雄心勃勃的项目，” says KarYong Ang, noting that while rumors about the BRICS currency have beencirculating for years, they are now more likely than ever to become reality inthe near future.

Still, Octa Broker does not expect anew currency to be fully unveiled during the summit in Kazan but anticipatessubstantial advancements in its conceptualisation and development. Despite itsmany benefits, there are significant challenges to overcome before such acurrency can be successfully implemented. Furthermore, it is not entirely clearif the BRICS is aiming to create a mere means of exchange between its membersto settle transactions in international trade or is building something moregrandiose, such as a Monetary Union, akin to Eurozone, with its own centralbank. “目前，货币联盟肯定是不可能的，” argues Kar Yong Ang, a financial marketanalyst at Octa Broker.

“这需要数年甚至数十年的准备、央行政策的协调以及各国之间达成协议，以新的共同法定货币取代主权货币。这种事在任何时候都不会发生。

事实上，金砖国家似乎并不以经济融合为目标。相反，它想要一个能够实现更高效的跨境交易的技术解决方案。换句话说，金砖四国希望建立一种由该组织所有成员国在国际上接受的共同交易方式，交易通过独立的金砖国家支付系统结算。事实上，金砖国家正在试图解决一个非常明显的问题。当两个国家相互贸易并以本国货币相互支付时（一些金砖国家成员国就是这种情况），一个销售更多并实现贸易顺差的国家最终将获得另一个国家的货币盈余。

例如，这是俄罗斯在其东方账户积累了数十亿印度卢比时面临的问题，这些卢比由印度支付以换取原油进口。这些卢比必须以某种方式回收，但有一个问题。俄罗斯无法将其纳入其外汇储备，因为它们不被国际货币基金组织（IMF）接受，因为卢比不在特别提款权（SPL）篮子中。因此，俄罗斯使用其多余卢比的唯一方法就是将其用于对印度的贸易和投资。然而，这可能并不总是利用这些资金的最有效或最有利可图的方式。为了解决这些和类似问题，金砖国家正在制定共同货币。

Kar Yong Ang, a financial marketanalyst at Octa Broker, notes: “金砖四国货币本身不会成为货币。它不会采取物理形式，所以在某种意义上它是概念性的。它的主要目的是充当一个简单的技术解决方案。” Indeed, at the onset, BRICS common currency willlikely be purely digital and will be used exclusively on the BRICS paymentplatform, called mBridge, supported by the Bank of International Settlement(BIS). BRICS' mBridge will serve as a gateway for settlements in central bankdigital currencies (CBDs). Effectively, it will act as an alternative totoday's most commonly used payment platform, called Society for WorldwideInterbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system.

分析师推测，新的金砖国家货币（或mBridge单位）将基于黄金和一篮子金砖国家货币，比例为40%至60%-即40%黄金和60%金砖国家货币。鉴于中国是金砖四国最大的经济体，人们认为货币篮子将由人民币主导。然而，考虑到印度与中国的关系不太理想，印度是否会支持这一解决方案还有待观察。无论如何，如果金砖国家宣布共同货币路线图或在建立方面取得进展，市场可能会对美元和黄金产生强烈影响。

事实上，如果金砖国家成功推出用于跨境支付的点对点数字货币平台，对美元的需求几乎肯定会下降。相反，黄金需求将会上升。事实上，在过去一年左右的时间里，金砖国家的中央银行一直在这样做--购买黄金，出售美国国债。难怪自2024年3月以来，金价每个月都创下新高，并继续接近历史高点。总体而言，新货币将使金砖国家能够进行无缝的跨境支付，降低交易成本，并使它们更加独立。在这一点上，很难考虑对全球范围的更广泛影响，但它可能会非常显著。美元的霸权从未受到如此程度的挑战，以至于其作为储备货币的地位受到质疑。尽管金砖四国还远未取代美元，但美元作为国际贸易首选货币的未来看起来并不确定。

关于Octa

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自成立以来，Octa已荣获70多个奖项，包括AllForexRating颁发的“2023年最佳外汇经纪商”奖和GlobalBrand杂志颁发的“2024年最佳移动交易平台”奖。