关键时刻

• 德国提议的5000亿欧元基础设施基金和放宽借贷上限引发欧洲债券收益率大幅上升，推动欧元兑美元飙升。
• 大规模财政刺激的前景导致分析师放弃了欧元将跌至与美元平价的预测。
• 一些分析师预测欧元可能会继续向1.10上涨。

在德国雄心勃勃的财政刺激计划的推动下，欧元兑美元周四飙升至四个月高点

The euro surged to a four-month peak against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, propelled by a significant increase in European bond yields following Germany’s announcement of a proposed 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and a restructuring of its borrowing constraints.
Germany’s landmark shift in public spending policy has triggered a substantial market reaction, driving both the euro’s value and government borrowing costs sharply higher.

In early Wednesday trading, the euro defied prevailing concerns about economic stagnation and Europe’s strategic vulnerabilities, rallying against the dollar. Concurrently, Germany’s 10-year borrowing costs experienced a near-quarter-percent jump, reaching a 17-month high, as investors rapidly adjusted to the anticipated impact of substantial defense and infrastructure spending.
These market movements stem from Tuesday’s announcement that Friedrich Merz, Germany’s incoming chancellor, reached an agreement with the Social Democrats (SPD) to circumvent the constitutional budget deficit limit. This news coincided with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s proposal to raise hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities.

“Europe, and Germany particularly, are demonstrating an unprecedented willingness to adjust their fiscal policies,” stated George Saravelos, head of global FX strategy at Deutsche Bank.
The potential for a significant fiscal stimulus package, or “bazooka,” pushed the euro up 0.7 percent against the dollar to 1.0722, its highest level since November. Saravelos anticipates the euro’s upward trend to persist until it reaches at least 1.10. While not all analysts share this level of optimism, there has been a swift revision of forecasts that previously predicted the euro could fall to parity with the dollar this year, driven by Europe’s subdued economic prospects.