The USDCAD is trending higher in early U.S. trading, currently testing the 200-小时移动平均线MA（绿线目前在1.43619）, a critical level for both buyers and sellers. Earlier today at day lows, buyers defended the 100-小时MA（蓝线在1.4318处）, preventing further downside, giving them control of the short-term trend. However, upside momentum faces key resistance levels ahead.

关键层面和市场结构

• 支撑位:

  • 100-小时MA（1.4318） held earlier, providing a base for buyers.
  • The 周低点 coincided with a key value area (red box), reinforcing it as a strong support zone. That level comes in at 1.4268 and will remain a key level that if broken would increase the bearish bias.

• 阻力位:

  • 200-小时MA（~1.4360） is the immediate hurdle; breaking above it would confirm further upside.
  • 1.4448 - 1.4471 (highlighted yellow zone) serves as a major resistance area where previous price action has struggled.

• 均线:

  • The 100-小时MA（蓝线） is below the price, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
  • The 200-小时MA（绿线） is being tested, and a break above it would strengthen the bullish case.t.

展望和场景

• 看涨情景:

  • A break above the 200-小时MA could trigger further upside, targeting 1.4448 - 1.4471.

• 熊市情景:

  • If the price fails at the 200-小时MA, expect a pullback toward the 100-小时MA（1.4318）.
  • A deeper decline could bring a retest of the 价值区低（红框）, indicating potential weakness.

结论

The bulls have regained control after buyers defended 1.4318, but they need a decisive break above 1.43619 to sustain upward momentum. Sellers had an opportunity earlier but failed to push the price lower, indicating a shift in sentiment. If the 200-小时MA holds as resistance, consolidation or another pullback could follow.