The USDCAD broke below its 200-day moving average last Friday—a key technical development that marked the first sustained move under that level since October 7, 2024. The bearish break sparked increased downside momentum, driving the pair through multiple support zones. Most notably, the price fell below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the September 2024 low at 1.39465, and through a prior floor near 1.3830, which had held from mid- to late-November.

The decline extended further today, reaching a session low of 1.38278, just above a swing level from December at 1.38131. That area is now a key downside target and potential support, with further selling pressure likely to eye the next support level near 1.3744, which was a swing low from July 2024. Below that, traders may target the 1.3665 zone—another key swing area from early summer.

On the upside, the rebound in today’s trade has taken the price back toward session highs near 1.3893. For buyers to begin shifting control, the first resistance comes at the broken floor-turned-ceiling at 1.3830, followed by the 61.8%回撤至1.39465. A break above that level would open the door toward the 200-日移动平均线为1.3998—effectively 1.4000—which now serves as a major technical barrier.

在恢复这些水平之前，卖家的偏见仍然根深蒂固，任何反弹都可能被视为纠正性质。

关键技术水平总结：

支持：

• 1.3813 -之前的挥杆水平

• 1.3744 - 7月波动低点

阻力：

• 1.3830 -破碎的十一月地板

• 1.39465 - 61.8%回撤（9月低点至12月高点）

• 1.3998/1.4000 - 200日移动平均线